The EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

The Euro is the strongest and the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest as the North American session begins. The US dollar starts the new trading week – heading into the US session – mostly stronger. The dollar only fell against the euro. EURUSD fell earlier in the day, but rose in the European session.

The ECB’s Lane stressed not to overreact to the monthly inflation data, noting the need to distinguish between noise and signal. He acknowledged bumps in inflation and large wage increases in some countries but expected cost pressures to ease next year. Lin highlighted unresolved questions about inflation momentum, which will not be clear by July. He pointed to the impact of the euro currency’s movements on politics, noting that the recent changes are not significant. Lin also stated that the peak effect of current rates on inflation has not yet been seen.

Today’s Fed speech will be highlighted by the Fed’s William (12 noon), Harker (1 p.m.), and Cook (9 p.m. ET). The Empire Manufacturing Index will be released at 8:30 AM EST with expectations at -9.0 vs. -15.6 last month.

A snapshot of other markets is shown as the North American session begins:

• Crude oil is trading down -$0.11 or -0.14% at $78.34. At this time on Friday, the price was at $78.97
• Gold is trading -$13.78 or -0.59% lower at $2,318.72. At this time on Friday, the price was at $2,331.80
• Silver is trading down -$0.30 or -1.02% at $29.23. At this time on Friday, the price was trading at $29.25
• Bitcoin is trading lower at $65,786. At this time on Friday, the price was trading as high as $67,051
• Ethereum is also trading at $3,520.60. At this time on Friday, the trading price was at $3,516.04

In the pre-market, a snapshot of the major indices is trading lower.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicate a decline of 76.16 points. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -57.92 points, or -0.15%, to 38,589.17.
• S&P futures are pointing at 0.65 points. The S&P closed Friday down -2.14 points, or -0.04%, at 5,421.61.
• Nasdaq futures point to a 45-point gain. The Nasdaq index also closed on Friday at a record high, with a gain of 21.32 points, or 0.13%, at 17,688.88.

European stock indices are trading lower again today in the US morning picture. Over the course of the week, all major indices fell sharply as political concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment. :

• The German DAX index rises by 0.24%. Last week, the index fell by -2.99%.
• The French CAC index rose by 0.40%. Last week, the index fell by -6.23%, its worst week since February 2022.
• Britain’s FTSE 100 index, unchanged. The index decreased last week by 1.19%.
• Spain’s Ibex index fell -0.37%. The index decreased last week by 3.60%.
• The Italian FTSE MIB index achieves gains of 0.62% (10 minutes delayed)… The index fell last week by -5.76% (its worst week since March 2023)

Shares in Asia Pacific markets were mixed:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index, -1.03%
• China’s Shanghai Composite Index, -0.55%
• Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, -0.03%
• Australian S&P/ASX Index, -0.31%

Looking at the US debt market, the yields are higher.

• The two-year yield is 4.723%, +3.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.666%.
• 5-year yield 4.266%, +4.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.203%.
• The 10-year yield is 4.259%, +4.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.197%.
• The 30-year yield is 4.398%, +4.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.341%.

Looking at the Treasury yield curve, spreads are flat

• The profit margin for 2-10 years is 46.5 basis points. At this time on Friday, the spread was at -46.8 basis points.
• The profit margin for 2-30 years is -32.5 basis points. At this time on Friday, the spread was at -32.5 basis points.