The least-talked-about secular trend right now is diminishing enthusiasm for immigration in the west.
It’s real and it will have profound implications for economic growth, demographics and inflation. I’ve seen it first-hand in Canada, which is typically the most-open country for immigration in the world.
There has been a 180-degree turn in the past year or so and the next election is likely to be fought over immigration. It happened after a surge in immigration over the past few years as foreign students and Canadian colleges exploited a loophole leading to a cheaper, easier path to permanent residence.
It broke the social contract, along with the Canadian housing market and government services.
It’s certainly not contained to only Canada. Immigration and illegal immigration will be a pivotal issue in the US election. We’ve already seen surprising election results in Holland and Germany that have been fuelled by immigration. In Australia, the immigration target has been cut by 50%.
I suspect this is just the beginning and that the implications will be far-reaching.
The WSJ reports today that the US is pushing Canada to impose visa requirements on Mexican visitors because of a surge in people flying to Canada and then crossing into the US from the north.
There is a gamification of immigration and asylum rules that’s ongoing and growing. Opaque information about the paths to reside in foreign countries has spilled out into the open, revealing that refugee claims take upwards of two years and that deportations are rarely enforced and can easily be tied up in courts.
The inevitable result will be declines in low-cost labour and highly-attractive talent. There is an opportunity as well for places that can curate the best of the best. The will of foreign nationals to move to safe, prosperous locations is unabated and as borders are closed, there will be an opportunity to select the best.
But it will only work for governments that can deliver on housing, education, healthcare and prosperity. That’s a short list.