As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin investors are eagerly looking forward to the final quarter of the year, traditionally known for positive price action. With many speculating that a bull run could be on the horizon, let’s break down the historical data, analyze the trends, and weigh the odds of what Bitcoin’s price action might look like by the end of this year.
Bitcoin’s historical performance in the fourth quarter
Looking at the past decade on Heat map of monthly returnsThe fourth quarter has often delivered impressive gains for Bitcoin. Data suggests that Bitcoin often ends the year strong, as evidenced by three consecutive green months in 2023. Not every year follows this trend, however, and 2021 and 2022 were less favorable, with Bitcoin ending the year on a more bearish note. . However, years like 2020, 2015 and even 2017 saw massive price spikes, highlighting the potential for a bullish finish in Q4.
Analysis of potential outcomes for the fourth quarter of 2024 based on historical data
To better understand the potential outcomes of Q4 2024, we can compare the previous Q4 performance to the current price action. This can give us an idea of how Bitcoin will behave if historical patterns continue. The range of possible outcomes is wide, from large gains to minor losses, or even sideways price movement. Latitudes are color coded in the rainbow from 2023 in red to 2015 in light violet.
For example, in 2017 (purple line), Bitcoin saw a significant increase, indicating that in an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin prices could reach $240,000 by the end of 2024.
However, it is also possible to obtain more conservative estimates. In a more moderate Q4, Bitcoin could range between $93,000 and $110,000, while in a bearish scenario, prices could fall to $34,000, as seen in 2018 (blue line).
The average result based on this data seems to be around $85,000. Although this is based on the year-end price from these forecasts, years like 2021 (yellow line) have seen prices rise significantly before noticeable year-end declines.
Is an intermediate result possible?
While $85,000 in about three months may seem optimistic, we only have to look to February of this year to see a single month in which Bitcoin saw a 43.63% increase. We can also look at metrics like Golden ratio multiplier Which shows a confluence around this level as a potential target with a high accumulation level of 1.6x.
Is $240,000 possible?
Whether Bitcoin can achieve such high values will depend on various factors. An increase in demand coupled with limited supply could push Bitcoin to all-time highs. Furthermore, developments such as Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investments, or major geopolitical events could further boost demand. We are also seeing a similar pattern in this cycle as we saw in the previous two cycles, with A The first wave of large-scale market flows Before the cooling off period; This will likely lead to a second rally in the near future.
This is likely an exaggeration, as Bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown significantly since 2017 and we would need tens of billions of funds to flow into the market. But Bitcoin is Bitcoin, and nothing is out of the question!
conclusion
Ultimately, while historical data indicates optimism about Q4, predicting Bitcoin’s future is always a guess. A third of all forecasts resulted in sideways price movements, with one predicting a broad-based decline. As always, it is important for investors to remain unbiased and react to Bitcoin data and price action rather than predict it.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch our recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin Q4 – Positive end to 2024?