This is an op-ed by Bitcoin Graffiti, a software developer and graffiti artist.
In 1714, the British Parliament was introduced longitude lawa law that rewards a £20,000 reward (more than $1 million in today’s money) to anyone who can pinpoint it accurately. longitude at sea. Captains had been struggling with poor navigation since the beginning of world trade. Although sailors could easily measure latitude by measuring the altitude of the sun, it was very difficult to determine longitude and, of course, inadequate techniques skewered ships. Without visual bearings, humans would have sailed blindly on the open seas. The increased travel time led to scurvy, delays, and wrecking of ships on the rocks—leaving crew and cargo lost to the depths forever.
Fortunately, a genius Briton came up with the solution – The chronometera watch that can keep its rhythm in choppy seas. John Harrison Such was genius, and his invention outperformed crude astronomical techniques that relied on clear skies, tables of numbers, and hours of arithmetic. There was no second best.
But his innovation was not approved!
according tolongitudeBy Dava Sobel, it took until 1828 for the Longitude Council to be dissolved and for the chronometer to reach mass adoption.
Why on earth did it take so long?
bypassing the S curve.
“…the diffusion of innovations is a social process, even more so than a technical one.”
– Everett M Rogers,”Spread innovations“
Another timekeeping device was invented in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralized clock in cyberspace that enables accurate economic computation and financial navigation in the uncertain waters of life. Although its features excel in the eyes of its users, its adoption rate is not astonishing.
Many claim he is about to cross the chasm: “This is the Internet of 1995!” But on our upside, we expected it to be iPhone-like adoption. Sure, ideas spread faster than ever before, but to regard this trend as the only variable that governs the rate of adoption is to oversimplify it. The story of Longitude shows us that even when innovation is completely thoughtless, it can take longer than you think.
Everett Rogers was a sociologist who published Observe how innovations spread through the social milieu by normal distribution. By accumulating adopters over time, the uptake looks like an S-curve that hockey sticks up after critical mass of users. This model gained popularity early in this century because it explained the explosive growth of mobile phones and the Internet.
But Rogers’ research includes more than just this memorable model. In his book, “Spread innovationsDiscover five criteria that govern the rate of technology adoption.
The five perceived attributes of bitcoin
One: comparative advantage
“Diffusion is a particular type of communication in which the content of the message being exchanged is concerned with a new idea.”
– Rogers,”Spread innovations“
Bitcoin’s perceived value is determined by two things: needs and price.
In order to obtain a need, one must encounter a problem. The problems with fiat money have long been recognized within the cybermoney and sound money communities, and they were the first to adopt it. But outside of these social groups, awareness of the deterioration of the dollar is low. Lack of financial education and being immersed in it leads to not looking for solutions. without a appropriate diagnosisNobody needs treatment.
The price of Bitcoin is slowing the adoption of the currency and the unit bias makes the currency look expensive. People do not know that it is divisible. The price is also volatile, confusing the store-of-value function. You can compare this with other adoptions. For example, mobile phone users realize the value instantly – they call anyone, anytime, anywhere. But with Bitcoin, an 80% drawdown and the number “down” for years is not uncommon. It takes a high level of abstraction to see the value of Bitcoin and a high conviction not to get dumped by the market.
Second: compatibility
“Potential adopters may not realize they have a need for innovation until they become aware of the new idea or its consequences.”
– Rogers,”Spread innovations“
The first release of a new technology is rarely an exact match for the entire market, serving only a niche group of innovators. According to Rogers, it must be innovation re-invention To find the right product for the market.
Bitcoin is currently compatible with the financially literate. But outside of this group, Bitcoin is not seen as aligned with people’s value and belief systems. It is still a niche product in the innovator stage.
For Bitcoin to reach more early adopters, it needs to be reinvented for different global markets. Currently, two distinct pathways are emerging: narrative and medium-of-exchange (MoE) use. Here are three examples:
- “Banking the Unbanked”: Bitcoin can help people in developing countries skip the outdated banking system. Starlink And smartphones from adoption where the Ministry of Education, the remittance system and the bank account in your pocket have a high value. Leaders in countries like saviorAnd Mexico And Indonesia Use such accounts to explain Nakamoto’s invention.
- “Electronic Warfare”: In his book, “Programming“,” Jason Lowry He uses military language to reinvent Bitcoin as a geopolitical asset that must be fought by nations in cyberspace, creating a new field for war. Through a military lens, it repurposes Bitcoin as “Bitpower,” creating a vision in which ASICs divert the power to raise a cryptographic wall, increasing the cost of attacking financial data. Lowery is a change agent, someone who translates Bitcoin to make it compatible with the US military.
- Grid balancing: This is the language of the energy sector clique. PoW mining can be used to make power grids more resilient, balance supply and demand and reap profits from stranded energy sources.
These narratives are designed to make Bitcoin more compatible with specific social groups who speak different languages. As understanding increases, these combinations will lead to the creation of new uses and applications.
Third: complexity
The chronometer was far ahead of its time, and it took years before crafty entrepreneurs copied and built the device. Likewise, Nakamoto had to present his invention to early adopters Bitcoin Talk forum. Since then, entrepreneurs have had to join and build services on top of the protocol, including cold storage solutions, memory seed gateways and exchanges. These upgrades have improved the user experience, but Bitcoin is still relatively complex compared to mobile.
This also applies to the level of development of Bitcoin. New developers face a steep barrier to entry with Bitcoin in apps – the ecosystem is not as well developed as regular web development. And while it’s true that bitcoin isn’t what it was in 2008, upgrades continue to make it more accessible – with groups like spiral And breeze Having recently launched software development kits to facilitate integration, for example – where is Steve Jobs’ boom moment?
We are still waiting for the killer app to be ready.
Fourth: the possibility of trial
“One must learn by doing the thing, for though you think you know it, you are not sure until you try.
Sophoclestrachinia“
The chronometer had a long trial period. By the time the captains could update their peers on the improved navigation, months of experimentation and travel had passed. The device was only considered good if it was accurate throughout the full sailing voyage. Moreover, there was a ship underway for months, which delayed word of mouth.
The Bitcoin journey also takes time. Since the price is volatile, it is not uncommon for it to be “under water” for some time. This can have an impact on the benefits a user sees, but it may also deter peers from adopting. The trial period may be as long Half bonusThe real advocates are not silenced until after enough time in the market.
While Bitcoin is easy to try out — one can only buy a few — the overall net benefit is great only with a larger purchase, proving the point that the full trial period can be halved.
Fifth: Observability
Bitcoin is digital and therefore poorly visible. It’s not like a file Ford Model T Road racing with its advantages on display. Most people only know about Bitcoin in news reports when it has broken all-time highs, which can only last for a relatively short time.
Accelerate adoption with more visible applications. Perhaps in the not too distant future, bitcoin miners may be an integral part of power plants and homes. People may send Bitcoin with their phones to friends on the street. Or they see Lightning buttons in a file our customer and discovering that it is possible to attract satosh to their favorite influencers.
Also, it is difficult to define increased wealth through bitcoin. Unless Bitcoiners start wearing Gucci and driving orange Lambos, wealthy HODLers are hard to notice. But wearing an oversized T-shirt may not be in vain and may speed up the spread.
prize
Harrison has been enjoying his alone time for 20 years. His invention was banned and delayed by bureaucracy, but he finally received a reward of £20,000. Clever entrepreneurs were able to extend his innovative design to mass production, and brought chronometers aboard ships where they saved time, goods, and lives. It took a long time, but the chronometer eventually flew to the top.
Today, the people of Earth are down the drain financially. Like ships ignorant of longitudes, they sail blindly through the treacherous waters of life, unable to calculate financially. We are barbarians living in the stone age of money before science. Future generations will look at us in dismay.
But this has to do with human psychology and how people embrace new ideas. In hindsight, all world-changing technologies seem self-evident. You’re right in the middle of a paradigm shift, the ignition of the scientific revolution, and it’s hard to see where things are headed.
Bitcoin will not spread as fast as Facebook, the Internet or the iPhone. There is a lot that needs to be built, reinvented and translated before the masses can get on board. As with electricity, the underlying layers are hard to touch without the actual hardware.
We won’t get there.
But it will take longer than you think.
This is a guest post by Bitcoin Graffiti. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.