The index has risen more than 11% year to date with major Wall Street brokerages raising their price targets in recent days.
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 sees an increase of 10% or more during the first 100 days of the year, it tends to continue rising.
The average return for the rest of these years is 7.1%, with an average of 9.3%, according to a Bank of America analysis.
“This equates to an SPX of 5,640 to 5,750 at year-end 2024. The mean and median rest-of-year returns for all years going back to 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, indicate an SPX of 5,530 to 5,650 at year-end,” the report said.
The S&P 500's performance in the first 100 days of 2024 is particularly important because it occurs during a presidential election year, which typically sees more modest gains.
Historically, the index has risen 63% during these periods, with an average return of -0.9% and a median return of 0.8%.
The 10.4% year-to-date gain for 2024 ranks as the second-best start to an election year since 1928, which saw a 12.5% gain.
Reinforcing the positive outlook is that when the S&P 500 rose in the first 100 days of a presidential election year, the rest of the year followed suit 93% of the time. The average return for these periods is 10.1%, with an average return of 8.9%.
In terms of the S&P 500, this could translate to a year-end target of 5800 and 5730 respectively.
Overall, historical patterns for all election years show the index rising 88% of the time, with average returns of 8.8% and 8.5%, suggesting a potential range of 5,730 to 5,700 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2024.