Ton Coin (TON) now appears to have entered a notable phase in the market cycle, presenting potential opportunities for investors. Modern analysis CryptoQuant analyst João Widson highlights that TON has moved into a risk zone favorable for accumulation, as indicated by the Normalized Risk Rating (NMR).
This measure evaluates asset price risk against historical data, providing a clearer picture of whether current price levels are appropriate for investment or if caution is warranted.
Current market forecast for Toncoin
NMR uses moving averages such as 50-day and 374-day simple moving averages (SMA) along with logarithmic variations in price data to determine risk exposure.
A normal score between 0 and 1 indicates the level of risk, and values closer to zero indicate a lower probability of price declines. According to Wedson, TON’s current position in the green indicates low risk, making it an attractive opportunity for investors looking for long-term exposure to the asset.
The analysis also indicates that although the medium and long-term risk profiles look favourable, there is still potential for TON price to revisit historically significant support areas, often referred to as the “blue zone” on price heat maps.
Historically, these levels have served as price floors and accumulation points for investors anticipating higher prices in the future.
Low open interest and market volatility trends
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, added more Context For Toncoin’s current market position. According to his observations, the open interest (OI) of TON in the futures market fell to $141 million, the lowest level observed in the past nine months.
Open interest refers to the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is a leading indicator of market sentiment and participation.
A decrease in open interest generally indicates decreased market activity and decreased volatility. While this trend is specific to TON, it reflects a broader pattern across the cryptocurrency market as the year comes to a close.
Historically, periods of low open interest are often followed by large price movements, either up or down, once liquidity returns to the market.
Declining open interest combined with Toncoin’s favorable risk metrics may indicate a period of price stability and reduced volatility.
Risk-Adjusted Returns and Withdrawals: A Look at Unrealized Gains in Ton
“The Open Interest and Funding Rates Chart complements this narrative by highlighting consistent open interest levels, which demonstrate sustainable participation in the TON ecosystem.” – By @Shevin Moodley
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— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, chart from TradingView