A Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election could put the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) at risk, according to an analysis by Jefferies.
The report noted concerns about potential declines in support for renewable energy if Trump returns to office, especially since Republicans are expected to control the Senate.
“The White House is still up in the air, but a narrow Republican win in the Senate seems likely,” Jeffries said.
In this scenario, former President Trump might try to repeal many provisions of the Individual Retirement Act, including incentives for renewable energy projects such as solar and wind. However, the analysis noted that the divided nature of Congress would pose significant legislative challenges to such efforts.
“A narrow split in the House could make it harder for Trump to push policy changes,” Jeffries said. Conversely, a Harris win would likely continue, and perhaps expand, the IRA’s policies, though a Republican-controlled Senate would act as a deterrent to more ambitious proposals.
“Harris could build on the IRA’s current framework, but the composition of the Senate would slow or alter any major initiatives,” the report noted. However, the lack of a detailed policy agenda from either candidate makes the IRA’s future highly uncertain.
Jeffries also highlighted the growing partisan divide on renewable energy, noting that while some red states may benefit from the IRA’s provisions, opposition from Republican lawmakers remains strong. “Nuclear power is one area where bipartisan support may be possible, but resistance to solar and wind incentives remains,” the report noted.
The outcome of the 2024 election will be crucial in determining the direction of US energy policy, with potential implications for domestic energy markets and international relations, particularly regarding China’s involvement in supporting the Individual Retirement Account.