Turkey hints at end of Israel trade embargo

When the war broke out, Syria was part of the Iranian axis, while Türkiye led the Muslim Brotherhood axis, which supports Hamas but also upsets Shiites. Fifteen months later, Türkiye maintained the same policy, but the uprising against the Assad regime turned Syria into its protectorate.

This not only benefits Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan electorally, but also economically. The Global Investigative Journalism Network (GIJN) estimated in September 2021 that the cost of rebuilding Syria from the civil war would be between $250 billion and $400 billion. Just one day after the fall of the Assad regime, the Istanbul Stock Exchange recognized the opportunity, and construction companies poured in celebration in anticipation that Türkiye would play an important role in rebuilding Syria. This is also reflected in the construction sector, whose executives are getting close to Erdogan.

About 3.1 million Syrian refugees live in Türkiye. The Turkish president is not interested in expelling them because of the damage it would cause to the voter base, so their voluntary return would benefit him in every way.

Another very important factor for Israel is security assistance. Senior Israeli officials and the IRA were boasting about the extent of the destructiveness of Assad’s military equipment before the rebels took over. However, the widespread attacks that prompted Türkiye to use its defense industries to tighten its influence over Damascus, led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani. A high-level Syrian delegation, led by the Foreign and Defense Ministers, arrived on a government visit in Ankara, where the Turkish Foreign Minister directly addressed security assistance.

This cooperation stems primarily because of the Kurds. Today, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) effectively control most of northeastern Syria. This is a position that Türkiye does not accept because of concerns about the independent aspirations of its country’s large Kurdish minority. Erdogan is limited in his ability to act, because the Kurds are friends of the United States, which provides them with security assistance, including troops on the ground.

But President Donald Trump, who does not support participating in other people’s wars, entered the White House again. On the other hand, in his previous term, he removed Türkiye from the F-35 project, after insisting on purchasing S-400 batteries from Russia.

Yaki Dayan, who in the past served as a senior advisor to Israeli Foreign Ministers Tzpi Levin and Silvan Shalom, says Trump’s relations with Türkiye are contradictory. “Trump likes strong leaders like Erdogan, but on the other hand, he did not hesitate to impose sanctions in his first term. I assume that Turkey will be required to make gestures on the Kurdish issue, which is important for the United States, because it cooperated with the Americans against ISIS, while they They are still holding ISIS prisoners.

A bigger threat than Iran?

Through this security cooperation, Türkiye is already, to some extent, bordering Israel. At the same time, the recommendations of the Nagel Commission, which identified the Turkish threat as “greater than the Iranian threat,” were widely reported in Turkish media, after Erdogan stated in recent months, for example, that Israel aimed to invade his country.

This week, as the first phase of the ceasefire with Hamas came into effect, Ankara has refined its messaging, especially regarding the Turkish trade embargo imposed last May. Nevel Ulbek, head of Turkey’s Directorate for International Trade Relations (DEIK), said Turkey may resume trade with Israel “if peace is permanent.”

Israel’s main dependence on Türkiye stems from the construction industry. Therefore, a loophole was quickly found – in the section for the destination of the goods, “Palestine” is written instead of Israel, but since the Palestinians have no ports, the goods reach Israeli ports and remain there.

Now, due to the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and tensions in Syria – with Turkey predictably calling on Israel to withdraw from the territories it recently seized – Ankara is making conciliatory gestures. However, renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip and direct clashes with the Syrian rebel army could, together or separately, lead to a deterioration in Israeli relations. Dr. Hai Eitan Cohen Yanarucak, an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, concludes that the Turks are not mixing arenas, managing their influence on the Gaza Strip and Syria separately. “Israeli-European trade depends on the Gaza issue, not the Syrian issue. When you look at this aspect, Erdogan is interested in getting rid of his recent income, he will criticize Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights.

Published by Globes, Israel Business News – en.globes.co.il – on January 23, 2025.

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