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Cannabis analytics firm New Frontier Data sees brighter days for the US cannabis industry, projecting $71 billion in legal marijuana sales in 2030 if the current trend of state legalization continues even without legal immunity at the federal level.
while 21 US states and the District of Columbia have already legalized weed, and cannabis companies are grappling with operational inefficiencies since their supplies must remain within state lines without federal protection.
Even banking access is limited: The SAFE Banking Act, which aims to allow cannabis companies to do business with US financial institutions, has been stuck in Congress since 2019, having been acquitted by the House of Representatives several times without any success in the Senate.
Just last week, a bipartisan group of US senators and Representatives reintroduced proposed legislation that sent shares of US Multi-State Operators (MSOs) and Canadian Licensed Producers (LPs) higher.
While its $71 billion forecast for 2030 assumes U.S. cannabis sales are at the current pace of statewide legalization, even if that momentum has waned, New frontier data You expect the market to reach $58 billion.
“As more established markets stabilize across the country, the U.S. cannabis industry will boost new markets coming online,” Gary Allen, CEO of New Frontier Data, noted in the release of the company’s latest industry report for 2023.
Allen sees “strong momentum” to legalize adult use of cannabis in nine U.S. markets and legalize medical use in nine more before 2030. “Even if the pace of new markets slows from its current pace, New Frontiers data estimates a healthy nine percent rate. compound annual growth through 2030.”
Other highlights in the report point to potential headwinds in the US cannabis market.
According to New Frontier Data, the average American consumer price per ounce of flower fell 10% to $294.15 from $325.46 in 2010, and for the first time, the oldest legal government cannabis markets for adults contracted in 2022.
Allen noted that “inflation, high taxes, and competing illicit markets are exacerbating price pressures in mature legal markets, and the prospect of a recession will negatively affect cannabis consumer spending in the medium term.”
However, New Frontier Data predicts that legal cannabis sales will reach $35 billion this year, up from $30 billion in 2022, and that US adult users in both legal and unregulated markets will reach 69 million by 2030, up from 54 million this year.
If all 18 states introduced cannabis reforms the next eight yearsThe percentage of Americans living in states that have some form of legal access to weed will reach 94%, up from 73% currently, according to the company.
US MSOs: MedMen Enterprises (OTCQB: MMNFF), Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK: CURLF), Acreage Holdings (OTCQX: ACRHF), Cresco Labs (OTCQX: CRLBF), Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX: GTBIF), TruliTC Cannabis (OTCQX: GTBIF) )), Ayr Wellness (OTCQX: AYRWF), Columbia Care (OTCQX: CCHWF), TerrAscend (OTCQX: TRSSF), Clever Leaves Holdings (CLVR)
Canadian LPs: Canopy Growth (CGC), Tilray (TLRY), Cronos (CRON), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Sundial Growers (SNDL), OrganiGram Holdings (OGI), HEXO Corp (HEXO)
Cannabis-related ETFs: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX), and ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ). Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS), AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS)