Via UBS, some interesting points came as the S&P 500 was just about 1% above its record high.
The note looks at the total returns of the S&P 500 Index (i.e. price gains plus dividends) since 1945, and points to a downside risk of 1%. Buy at random Starting points:
- In 28% of cases, an investor who buys at a random time will never see his investment (including dividends) trade in the red at any point in the future.
- In more than 50% of cases, an investor will never see their investment decline by more than 5% at any time.
- In 19% of cases, they would have experienced what UBS calls a “personal bear market” with a loss of more than 20%.
UBS then covers the percentages when the investor buys at a record high price:
- In 32% of cases, the investor will never see his investment (including profits) trade at a loss.
- In 15% of cases, would the investor have seen their investment decline by more than 20%?
That 15% compares favorably to the 19% when bought at random. Of course, this is since 1945, so you might object to the sample size. Also, this is the S&P 500, and other indices will vary.
UBS added:
- It may seem counterintuitive that historical highs are often followed by further gains.
- But record highs are not the same as market tops.
- For every 2000 or 2007, when buying stocks at all-time highs later seemed like a bad idea, there were many other times, such as 1982, 1992, 1995, 2013, 2016, mid-2020, and early 2024, when investors were rewarded for keeping the faith.