The main US data this week is on Tuesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement the following day.
UBS is watching retail sales and industrial production data, saying weakness in these could impact the European Central Bank’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points.
UBS says inflation has fallen enough to warrant a rate cut. The bank sets a “base case” of 100 basis points for the rest of the year, and another 100 basis points in 2025. As the pace of rate cuts accelerates, the US dollar will continue to fall, and gold will rise further, the bank adds.
- This image is from ForexLive’s economic data calendar, You can access it here..
- The times in the left column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right column are the “previous” result (previous month/quarter as the case may be). The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the expected consensus average.