UK inflation rose to an eight-month high in November, raising fears that the economy will enter the new year burdened by so-called “stagflation” – anemic growth and high price rises.
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(Bloomberg) — U.K. inflation rose to an eight-month high in November, raising concerns that the economy will enter the new year burdened by so-called “stagflation” — anemic growth and skyrocketing prices.
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The Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday that the consumer price index rose 2.6% year-on-year from 2.3% in October, driven by higher motor fuel and clothing prices.
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“There is almost no chance that the Bank of England will give an early Christmas present with another interest rate cut tomorrow,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. He added that this week’s data, which included the first acceleration in wage growth in more than a year, “means the bank will not be able to worry less about inflation for a while yet.”
Markets effectively ended any expectations of the Bank of England cutting interest rates at its final meeting of the year on Thursday. Only two cuts are expected in 2025, down from three at the start of the week. The British pound fell slightly, trading around $1.269.
Services inflation – which Bank of England rate-setters are closely monitoring for signs of persistent pressures – remained stubbornly high at 5%. The Bank of England had expected 4.9%.
These numbers reinforce fears of stagflation, which threatens to be a major headache for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The Labor government has promised to boost living standards and expand the economy at the fastest rate of any G7 country, but GDP is moving in the opposite direction, contracting for two months in a row.
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“Combined with the recent stalling of growth, this paints a picture of a UK economy struggling to escape the clutches of stagflation,” said Tom Stephenson, investment director at Fidelity International.
Living costs
The November CPI reading brings back memories of the cost of living crisis. This was the first successive increase in the annual inflation rate in more than two years when price growth peaked above 11%. Goods inflation – the main driver of post-Covid price rises – rose to 0.4%, turning positive for the first time since March.
“I recognize that the cost of living crisis remains painful,” said Treasurer Rachel Reeves, commenting on the latest inflation figures. She said the government increased the minimum wage and frozen fuel duties in its October budget to help families cope.
The budget also included tax rises worth more than 40 billion pounds ($50.8 billion), which companies said would hit wages and investment.
Chris Hammer, director of the British Retail Consortium, said the rising costs caused by taxes, regulations and minimum wages “simply cannot be absorbed, despite the best efforts of retailers, and will inevitably lead to higher prices, job losses and more empty stores”. .
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The Bank of England expects inflation to approach 3% by the third quarter of next year, as additional government spending worth tens of billions of dollars reinforces the inflationary impact of last year’s decline in energy prices from the CPI equation.
UK households also expect inflation to rise to 3% over the next year, the first increase in expectations since 2023, according to a Bank of England survey.
Domestic inflationary pressures could combine with a more uncertain global environment next year. All eyes are on US President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised to increase tariffs and reset trade relations. Policymakers at the Bank of England have cited protectionism as a key risk to inflation expectations.
—With the help of Konstantin Korcula.
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