Keir Starmer will be Britain’s next prime minister, and his Labour Party is expected to win a large majority in the parliamentary election, ending 14 years of often turbulent Conservative government by defeating Rishi Sunak’s party.
While there are still many results to be announced from Thursday’s vote, the centre-left Labour Party has already won more than 326 of the 650 seats in parliament, with opinion polls suggesting it will win around 410 seats.
On a humiliating night for Sunak, the Conservatives have so far won just 70 seats and are set to suffer the worst performance in the party’s long history as voters punish them for a cost of living crisis, failing public services and a series of scandals.
“Tonight, people here and across the country have spoken and they are ready for change, for an end to performance politics, for politics to return to being a public service,” Starmer said after winning his London seat.
“Change starts here… You voted. Now it’s time to deliver what you promised.”
Keir Starmer, leader of the British Labour Party, and his wife Victoria Starmer attend a reception to celebrate Starmer’s election victory, at the Tate Modern, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024.
Image source: Reuters
Sunak conceded defeat and said he had called Starmer to congratulate him on his victory.
“Today the transfer of power will be peaceful and orderly, with good faith on all sides. There is much to learn and reflect on and I take responsibility for the loss of so many hardworking Conservative candidates… I am sorry,” he said after regaining his seat.
Despite his convincing victory, opinion polls suggest there is little enthusiasm for Starmer or his party, and he comes to power at a time when the country faces a series of enormous challenges.
Britain’s tax burden is set to reach its highest level since just after World War II, net debt is now roughly equivalent to annual economic output, living standards are falling, and public services are deteriorating, especially the National Health Service, which is plagued by strikes.
He has already had to scale back some of Labour’s most ambitious plans, such as its key green spending pledges, while promising not to raise taxes on “Labour”.
Much of the damage to Conservative support has been done by the right-wing populist Reform Party in the UK, led by Brexiteer Nigel Farage, which has campaigned hard to limit immigration.
Starmer has promised to scrap the Conservatives’ controversial policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, but he will face pressure himself to find a solution to stop tens of thousands of people arriving across the Channel in small boats.
Within the Conservative Party, accusations and debate about the future direction of the party immediately began, with some saying its failure stemmed from abandoning the centre, while others claimed that the reform had succeeded in winning over voters who felt the party had abandoned its roots.
Reform won four seats, and Farage himself was finally elected to parliament on his eighth attempt, winning more votes than the Conservatives in large parts of the country.
“There is a huge gap on the centre-right in British politics and my job is to fill that gap and that is exactly what I will do,” Farage said triumphantly. “Believe me people, this is just the first step to something that will blow you all away.”
Keir Starmer, leader of the British Labour Party, and his wife Victoria Starmer greet supporters as they attend a reception to celebrate Starmer’s election victory, at the Tate Modern, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024.
Image source: Reuters
The rise in support for the populist alternative mirrored similar recent findings in Europe, where the far right has been on the rise.
But in contrast to France, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party made historic gains in last Sunday’s election, the British public generally backs a centre-left party to bring about change.
Starmer has promised to improve relations with the EU to resolve the issues caused by Brexit, just as far-right politicians are enjoying success. However, despite opposition to Brexit, returning to the EU is not on the table.
Johnson may also have to work with Donald Trump in the United States if he wins the presidential election in November, but he has pledged to continue London’s clear support for Ukraine.
An election win would represent an incredible turnaround for Starmer and Labour, which critics and supporters said was facing an existential crisis just three years ago when it appeared to have lost its way after its defeat in 2019.
But a series of Conservative scandals – most notably the revelations about party insiders in Downing Street during the Covid lockdown – undermined then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and evaporated his huge lead in the polls.
Sunak surprised Westminster and many in his own party when he called the election earlier than it should have been in May with the Conservatives trailing Labour by about 20 points in the polls, and his campaign subsequently proved a disaster.
“We deserved to lose. The Conservative Party seems exhausted and out of ideas,” Ed Costello, chairman of the Conservative People’s Organisation, which represents ordinary party members, told Reuters.
“But it’s not all Rishi Sunak’s fault. It’s Boris Johnson and Liz Truss who led the party into disaster. Rishi Sunak is just the scapegoat.”