Primary personal computer in the United States
- Previous month 0.3%
- Monthly core personal consumption expenditures came in at 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.
- YoY core PCE rate of 2.8% versus estimates of 2.8%. Last month 2.8%.
- Monthly PCE growth of 0.3% vs. 0.3% estimate. Last month 0.3%.
- PCE YoY 2.7% vs. 2.7% estimate. Last month 2.7%
- The unrounded base PCE rate was 0.249%, so it was between 0.2% and 0.3%.
Looking at personal income and personal consumption for April:
- Personal income per month for the previous month 0.5%
- Personal consumption on a monthly basis in the previous month was revised by 0.5% to 0.4%.
- Personal income for April rose 0.3% versus 0.3% expected
- Personal consumption for April -0.1% vs. 0.3% expected
The initial reaction with inflation slightly lower (but in the middle between 0.2% and 0.3%) and consumption also falling at -0.1% indicating a slowdown in growth is that US yields move lower/US stocks move higher:
- The two-year yield is 4.920%, -0.9 basis points
- The 5-year yield is 4.556%, -1.6 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.530%, -2.4% basis points
- 30-year yield 4.661%, -2.3%
In primary markets for US stocks:
- The Standard & Poor's Index rose 15.02 points
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 104 points
- The Nasdaq index rose to 34.34 points
On the non-bullish side, Nick Temiros comments on
Looking at a 3-month scale, it reached 3.46%, which is lower compared to the last two months, but higher than at any point in the second half of 2023.
The question that will be determined later is what lies ahead.
This follows CPI data which was weak, but is only one report. Fed officials said it would take more than 1. So the story remains the same but it's 1, not 0.