US dollar sinks as the bond market tries to call a top in yields

The US dollar is under pressure following a soft ISM manufacturing report.

The main catalyst is the bond market as yields fall 7-10 bps across the curve. US 10-year yields have backed further away from 5%.

US 10s

The Treasury announced new auction sizes for bonds today and 10-year sizes weren’t as large as feared. That’s triggered something of a FOMO rally in bonds, driving yields sharply lower. Adding to it is a soft ISM manufacturing report and lower-than-expected ADP employment data.

The equity market is cheering lower yields with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and Nasdaq up 0.9%. That’s adding to a bid in risk assets and driving the commodity currencies higher.

Furthermore, USD/JPY longs are getting squeezed and taking some profits, with the Fed decision later also a risk.

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