US Dollar, Debt Ceiling, US Dollar, Fed, Japanese Machinery Orders, USD/JPY – Talking Points
- the U.S. dollar It lost its appeal today with the return of Joe Biden from the G7
- The Fed may signal a pause next time Federal Open Market Committee In mid-June
- if American dollar Land cannot be won elsewhere, does that mean US dollar / Japanese yen Peaked right now?
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How to trade the US dollar/Japanese yen
The US Dollar fell again against the Swiss Franc, the Euro, the British Pound and the Yen to start the week with the US Debt Ceiling creating doubts in the minds of traders.
Talks are set to resume later today between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The latter said a phone call between the two was “productive”.
Treasury yields are down a few basis points across the curve so far and could contribute to a weaker US dollar.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made remarks on Friday that were seen as less hawkish than the previous comment. Regarding future policy decisions, he said, “the stakes of doing too much versus doing too little have become more balanced.”
Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari also stated that he would be open to a rally rally at the upcoming FOMC meeting in mid-June.
Interest rate markets started to cut 25 basis points to the federal funds rate by November.
The Japanese Yen is rising even though Core Machinery Orders for March came in much lower than expected today.
New orders fell -3.9% m/m in March instead of rising 0.4% as expected. On a year-over-year basis, core machinery orders fell -3.5% through the end of March, much lower than estimates for a 1.3% increase.
USD/JPY has crossed a significant number below the 0f 138.75 6-month peak seen last Thursday.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) is the best among stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region, rising more than 1.5% at one point. The rest of the major Asian stock exchanges are mostly in the green although the Australian ASX 200 is pulling back a bit.
The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector is facing increased scrutiny after the Australian Government today announced measures to bring these debt providers under existing global credit laws. Businesses will now need to obtain a fiduciary license to operate.
Gold held on to Friday’s gains but didn’t move much going into the European session, trading near $1,980 at press time.
Crude Oil is struggling today after Friday’s rally but remains in a wide range. The WTI futures contract is nearing $71 while the Brent contract is nearing $75.
It’s a relatively quiet day in terms of data releases, but several speakers from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will be making speeches.
The full economic calendar can be viewed here.
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Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair
USD/JPY tried to rally last week after breaking above a previous peak and reaching as high as 138.75.
The market seems to have rejected this move for the time being, with the price falling below the previous resistance levels. This could indicate a false rally and a new high will have to be made to allay these concerns.
Resistance might be at the previous highs at 138.17, 138.75 and 139.90. On the downside, support might lie at the 200 and 260 day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 137.12 and 136.46 respectively.
– By Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Please contact Daniel via @tweet on Twitter