US futures edge higher as key inflation report matches expectations

U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday as Wall Street digested a key signal on consumer prices that is set to help shape the future of near-term interest rate policy. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq (NQ=F) were up about 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) futures were hovering near flat.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that price increases remained largely steady in July. Consumer prices rose 2.9% year-over-year in July, the first time headline inflation has fallen below 3% since 2021. On a “core” basis, stripping out food and energy costs, prices rose 3.2% year-over-year. Both figures were largely in line with Wall Street expectations.

Wall Street rose on Tuesday on positive inflation data that could signal a similar trend in consumer prices. The producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy, rose just 2.2% year-over-year in July, roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The combined inflation signals could push the Fed closer to cutting rates. Even the Fed’s most hawkish members are signaling that they need more good data to be ready to support a rate cut. Further signs of slowing inflation, coupled with a slowing labor market, would likely leave the Fed in a position to cut rates at its September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are all set to cut rates next month — the question is how much. More than half of bettors are betting on a bigger cut of 50 basis points, while the rest are still on a 25-basis-point cut.

He lives1 update

  • Inflation falls more than expected in July

    Consumer prices rose less than expected in July as investors continued to look for signs that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates.

    The Consumer Price Index for July showed prices rose slightly by 0.2% from the previous month, up from a 0.1% decline in June. Prices rose by 2.9% from a year earlier, down from the 3% seen in June. The report marks the first time that overall inflation, on an annual basis, has fallen below 3% since March 2021.

    Economists had expected prices to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3% on a yearly basis, according to Bloomberg data.

    Excluding volatile food and energy, “core” inflation fell to an annual rate of 3.2% from 3.3% the previous month. Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast core inflation at 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was 0.2%, up slightly from 0.1% the previous month.

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