US Consumer Price Index YoY (%)
This will keep markets on tenterhooks until we get to the release later today. Headline annual inflation is forecast to slow to 3.1%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to remain at 3.4% – unchanged from May. Either way, the details will be as important as the numbers above. So be careful with that. These numbers are from last month.
Although the markets are eagerly awaiting the report, it may end up being unchanged.
Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates twice by the end of the year, and it would take a real surprise to change that outlook. It’s kind of an ideal situation for the Fed, so they’re quite happy with it.
I mean, we’ve already seen how things have played out over the last couple of months. It all started with traders reacting to inflation numbers, and then they reversed course in the following days.
However, the wait and see should lead to a more reflective session later in Europe, so don’t expect any major moves before we get to the main event later in the day.