US Leading Economic Index (LEI) M/M -0.6% vs. -0.3% expected

• US LEI -0.6% vs -0.3% expected and -0.3% previous.

“Another decline in US LEIs confirms that softer economic conditions lie ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior director of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.

“Deteriorating consumer expectations about business conditions, weak new orders, a negative yield spread, and a decline in new building permits fueled the decline in April. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October last year. While growth rates for Six-month and annual growth rates for LEIs no longer indicate an imminent recession, but they still indicate serious headwinds to future growth.”

“Indeed, high inflation, rising interest rates, rising household debt, and the depletion of pandemic savings are expected to continue to weigh on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we expect real GDP growth to slow to less than 1 percent over the quarter.” The second until the third quarter of 2024.”