US Nov core PCE y/y
- Prior was +3.5%
- PCE core m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (unrounded at 0.09%)
- Prior m/m core +0.2%
- Headline PCE 2.6% vs +2.8% expected (prior +3.0%)
- Deflator m/m -0.1% vs +0.0% expected (prior +0.0%) — first negative monthly reading since April 2020
Consumer spending and income for November:
- Personal income +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2% (revised to +0.3%)
- Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.2%
- Real personal spending 0.3% vs +0.2% prior
These numbers are USD-negative but the market is instead focused on a strong durable goods orders report. Digging deeply into services ex housing and food and it rose 0.1%, the same as the prior month. Over the last six months, the core PCE price index rose 1.9% at an annualized rate.
The market continues to price in 154 bps in cuts but US 2-year yields have risen to 4.35% from 4.32% on the data.