US November PCE core inflation 3.2% vs 3.3% expected

US Nov core PCE y/y

  • Prior was +3.5%
  • PCE core m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (unrounded at 0.09%)
  • Prior m/m core +0.2%
  • Headline PCE 2.6% vs +2.8% expected (prior +3.0%)
  • Deflator m/m -0.1% vs +0.0% expected (prior +0.0%) — first negative monthly reading since April 2020

Consumer spending and income for November:

  • Personal income +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2% (revised to +0.3%)
  • Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.2%
  • Real personal spending 0.3% vs +0.2% prior

These numbers are USD-negative but the market is instead focused on a strong durable goods orders report. Digging deeply into services ex housing and food and it rose 0.1%, the same as the prior month. Over the last six months, the core PCE price index rose 1.9% at an annualized rate.

The market continues to price in 154 bps in cuts but US 2-year yields have risen to 4.35% from 4.32% on the data.

CoreexpectedInflationNovemberPCE
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