Today’s data could help the Fed make its decision next week (and beyond), as the “preferred measure of inflation” (core PCE) will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Personal spending and spending (and personal income and spending) data will highlight the economic data review due out today, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (final) at 10 a.m. ET. I heard the core personal spending index was 0.18%, but Reuters estimates it will be 0.1%. Be careful.
- PCE Price Index MoM: 0.1% vs. 0.0% last month. 2.5% YoY vs. 2.6% last month.
- Core PCE MoM: 0.2% vs. 0.1% last month. Estimated 2.5% vs. 2.6% last month
- Personal income per month: Estimated 0.4% vs. 0.5% last month
- Personal Spending MoM: Estimated 0.3% vs. 0.2% last month
- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Revised: Estimated 66.0 vs. 68.2 last month and 66.0 in preliminary estimate
- Revised Current Conditions: Preliminary 64.1. Last Month 65.9
- Revised forecast: Initial 67.2. Last month 69.6
- 1-year inflation forecast: 2.9% initially vs. 3.0% last month
- 5-year inflation expectations: 2.9% initially vs. 3.0% last month