USDCAD broke below the midpoint of 50% of the move up from the Oct 21 low at 1.3132 and the June 2023 low at 1.31157. The breakout moved to a new low for this year and a low dating back to September 2022 at 1.3106.
USDCAD drops below 50%
However, the price has rebounded again and is trading near 1.3124.
What will now keep sellers firmly in control?
Staying below 50% at 1.3132 would be a bearish play, but I can see the risk as high as 1.3143 in the short term (low from yesterday’s trade). If the price starts to trade above this level, a break below the 2023 low, a break below the 50% retracement, a break below yesterday’s low will all fail. There is likely to be further investigation to the upside.
Absent that, sellers remain more in control.
USDCAD sellers are in control