USDJPY is testing the 100 hourly moving average. Short term barometer.
USDJPY moved lower today, let go of the boil a bit (see videos here And hereIt has started to drift lower against the channel trend line against the swing highs from this week (green numbered circles). The lows fell below the lower trendline of the channel but were halted before the 100-hour moving average (blue line) rally, currently at 144.19. Today’s low reached 144.194.
What then?
We are approaching the close and it looks like the price will stay above the 100 hourly moving average. That would leave next week open for either further investigation to the downside on the breakout, or a bounce off the level and a continuation of the bullish bias.
Basically, the Bank of Japan is still committed to expansionary policy. The Fed is likely to hike in July and possibly more in 2023,
However, if there is a policy shift in Japan, or if the Bank of Japan intervenes, there may be a reverse flow to the downside. .