Venezuelans Head to Polls in Test of Commitment to Democracy

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(Bloomberg) — For the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans are feeling hopeful about a chance at democracy.

Voters began lining up at polling stations across the country early Sunday to choose between President Nicolás Maduro, whose grip on power has extended for 11 years during one of the worst humanitarian and economic crises in modern history, and a candidate who is not even on the ballot.

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Former lawmaker María Corina Machado—whom Maduro’s government has barred from running for public office—has gained popularity with calls to dismantle government controls on the economy, privatize the oil industry, and reunite families torn apart by the exodus of 7.7 million Venezuelans. This has culminated in a popular movement as powerful as the country has seen since the late Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and idol, overthrew the political establishment in the late 1990s.

Machado has endorsed her replacement candidate, former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, 74, who is facing Maduro, 61.

All eyes will be on the transparency and integrity of the vote, especially after the United States reimposed costly sanctions over what it called violations of the free elections agreement. Small missions from the Carter Center and the United Nations, hundreds of local observers, and a network of some 30,000 volunteer witnesses could play a crucial role in mitigating the risk of potential fraud. Venezuela has withdrawn its invitation to monitor the vote from a more powerful group, the European Union.

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It’s hard to imagine Maduro relinquishing power, especially given the repression of the opposition party so far and the history of fraudulent elections. One of his biggest challenges will be proving that the vote was fair enough to give him legitimacy among his people and the rest of the world. If Gonzalez wins, the biggest challenge will be organizing a peaceful transfer of power to a government filled with Chavez loyalists.

But whoever takes over Venezuela for the next six years will have to navigate a path to economic recovery, secure an easing of sanctions on oil, the country’s main export and main source of income, and negotiate a restructuring of $158 billion in debt.

Maduro could win through a combination of a biased electoral authority, intimidation and voter suppression. The government controls three of the five directors of the National Electoral Council, the most important of whom is its president, Elvis Amoroso — known for excluding Machado, 56, from public office.

That’s why voter turnout will be crucial, according to Jeff Ramsay, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America.

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He said the “flood of votes” would make it “impossible” for the government to manipulate the election. However, the Maduro administration could exploit the low voter turnout to its advantage. It could use “patronage networks and a general climate of intimidation to prevent the opposition from participating.”

Of Venezuela’s 28 million citizens, more than 21 million are registered to vote, according to electoral authority figures. Turnout is expected to be similar to that in the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections, when abstention was around 20 percent.

Most Venezuelans living abroad, a key voting bloc for González, will not be eligible to vote, meaning some 4.5 million registered voters will not be able to participate. Absentee voting is possible only in countries that have diplomatic relations with Maduro’s government, and requires successfully updating their electoral registry. Those living in places like the United States or Canada can return to Venezuela to vote, but most cannot afford to do so.

In contrast to the last election, Maduro’s image is plastered on posters and billboards across the capital. Some are brightly colored portraits of the president. In others, images of students, the elderly and indigenous people appear above a message that reads: “Faith in our people, Maduro as president.”

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Advertisements promoting Gonzalez are rare, in part because of fears of retaliation if they are printed or published. According to the nonprofit Foro Penal, more than 100 people who support Machado and Gonzalez in any way have been arrested this year.

Polling stations are expected to close at around 6 p.m. local time, or until no one is left in line to vote. Maduro reiterated that the electoral body is expected to announce the preliminary results at 10 p.m.

If the government succeeds in holding a sham election, the loyalty of the armed forces will be key to quelling any protests or crisis that might follow. Maduro has distributed large and lucrative sectors of the economy to the military, placing soldiers in key positions at the state oil company, PDVSA, and giving defense officials oversight of mining and ports.

Veronica, a Caracas resident who asked that her last name be withheld for fear of being targeted by the government, said she was stocking up on essentials in preparation for staying home if tensions rose after the vote.

“The anxiety in Venezuela is not easy,” said the 22-year-old marketing student. “I buy cans of tuna, eggs, products that do not expire quickly, even candles in case the power goes out after the elections.”

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On July 25, the day the campaign officially ended, Maduro’s supporters gathered on downtown’s Bolivar Avenue, where salsa bands blared and vendors sold snacks and drinks, creating a festive atmosphere. This was the same place where Chávez spoke to a large crowd in October 2012, when he wrapped up his final presidential campaign before dying of cancer the following year.

Many of the crowd said they were government employees, bused in from their offices, dressed in Maduro campaign T-shirts and even given food. Reyna, 26, who asked that her last name be withheld for fear of being targeted by the government, was among those who said they were forced to go to the rally but do not support Maduro’s re-election.

Others were enthusiastic about the president. “He’s been struggling since Chávez died,” said Apolinar Espinosa, 65, who works in the government’s recycling program. “In good times and bad, he’s been there, giving people what he can.”

About four miles away, supporters of Machado and Gonzalez lined the sidewalks of Las Mercedes, a busy neighborhood east of downtown, trying to catch a glimpse of the opposition duo. As their motorcade approached, people began screaming and holding up cellphones to show family and friends that they were able to reach them via video calls.

Mariana Tellez, a 20-year-old nursing student, held a handmade “Freedom Tour” poster, reminiscent of Taylor Swift’s Eras tour. She said she looked up to Gonzalez, 70, as a kindred spirit to the pop star — and someone whose policies she hopes will enable her family living abroad to return home.

“I just want my relatives back, especially my father,” she said. “I want economic independence. I want regular electricity in my house.”

—Assisted by Alex Vasquez.

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