No major central banks sharing monetary policy decisions this week, but that doesn’t mean traders won’t try to estimate their expectations!
This week we will see more data from China, the latest labor market readings from the UK and Australia, and a slew of FOMC members’ speeches that may provide clues to their decision in June.
Before all of that, I wrote ICYMI A quick recap of market topics That pushed the currency pairs last week. check it!
Now for the closely watched economic indicators on this week’s economic calendar:
Data dump in China
As noted in Global Market Recap, weak inflation and trade data from China spooked markets enough to pull back “risky” assets such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and crude oil.
Tuesday, May 16 at 2:00 a.m. BSTWe’ll get another snapshot of how the world’s second-largest economy has fared for months after COVID restrictions were lifted.
Fixed asset investment It is expected to accelerate from 5.1% to 5.7% in January-April compared to the same period a week ago. Ditto for the year Industrial productionwhich was seen jumping from 3.9% to 10.9%.
On the part of consumers, the pace retail Doubles from 10.6% to 22.0% YoY in April while Unemployment rate fixed at 5.3%.
Downside errors from these reports could raise concerns about global demand and economic recovery even further, so make sure you’re there for the action!
UK labor market readings
In its decision last week, the Bank of England (BOE) shared that the labor market proved stronger than expected in February.
Let’s see if the UK employment situation will continue to provide room for the Bank of England to tighten its policies further.
on May 16th at 6:00 a.m. BSTMarkets see net 31,200 Unemployed claimants For the month of March, it’s just above February’s figure of 28,200.
Meanwhile, for three months average income It slows down from 5.9% to 5.8% YoY while Unemployment rate It is expected to maintain February’s reading of 3.8%.
Australian Labor Market Reports
Will Australian jobs numbers this week support speculation of another RBA rate hike?
Thursday, May 18th at 1:30 a.m. BSTthe economy is expected to add a Net 24,100 jobs for the month of april That’s half of March’s net addition of 53,000.
Although job addition estimates are low, the Unemployment rate It is expected to remain at 3.5% for the third month in April. The unemployment rate surprised rising in the last two releases, so it made room for surprises this week!
Stronger-than-expected labor market reports will not only support the RBA’s latest rate hike, but also give the central bank more room to tighten its policies in June.
Speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee
Just when markets were feeling confident in her calls to pause a rate hike in June, last week’s CPI and PPI data as well as hawkish rhetoric from FOMC members Bowman and Williams shook their biases.
We’ll hear more from the FOMC staff this week starting with the Minneapolis Fed Chair Neil Kashkari who will be speaking today at 1:15pm GMT. Kashkari noted last week that stubbornly high inflation means the Fed will have to keep its policies tight for “an extended period of time.”
Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank Lisa Cook It then takes center stage at 9:00 PM GMT the same day.
Then, on May 16th at 2:00 PM GMT, the Fed Governor Michael Barr He will share his two cents, followed by the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York John Williams (4:15 p.m. GMT) and the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austin Goolsby (11:00 pm GMT).
The lineup for Thursday, May 18th includes the Fed Governor Philip Jefferson (1:05 p.m. GMT), noon on Michael Barr (1:30 p.m. GMT) and the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laurie Logan (2:00 pm GMT).
The FOMC Parade concludes on Friday, May 19th when williams (12:45 p.m. GMT) and Bowman (1:00 pm GMT) appears again before the Powell debate.
correct! 3:00 pm GMT Federal Reserve Chairman honcho will speakViews on Monetary PolicyOn a panel discussion that will feature former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Who needs streaming services when you can watch the monetary policy drama, My Prince?
The hawkish messages from the FOMC gang throughout the week may set the tone for the USD trends for the week, so be sure to mark the dates of their talk and include them in your trading ideas this week!