Weekly Market Recap (02-05 January)

The Chinese Caixin
Manufacturing PMI for December beat expectations:

• Manufacturing PMI 50.8
  vs. 50.4 expected and 50.7 prior.
• Output and new
  orders both increase at quicker rates.
• firms maintain a
  cautious approach to employment.
• Inflationary pressures remain soft.

The Canadian
Manufacturing PMI for December fell further into contraction:

• Manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs. 47.7 prior.
• Lowest reading since
  May 2020.

The Switzerland
Manufacturing PMI for December improved slightly although it remains well in
contraction territory:

• Manufacturing PMI 43.0
  vs. 42.1 prior.

Fed’s Barkin (neutral –
voter) acknowledged the progress on inflation highlighting the 6-month Core PCE
rate falling below the 2% target:

• We’re ‘making real
  progress’ on inflation while economy healthy.
• Six-month PCE
  inflation now ‘just below’ 2% target’.
• ‘You can see the
  case’ for a soft landing developing but it is not inevitable.
• Risks include
  delayed impact of high rates on credit, outside shocks, services inflation
  getting stuck and strong demand.
• Potential for
  additional hikes remains on the table.
• Suggests less focus
  on path of rates and more on whether inflation continues to fall, and
  economy remains strong.

The US ISM Manufacturing
PMI for December slightly beat expectations with general upbeat comments
although the New Orders index fell further:

• ISM Manufacturing
  PMI 47.4 vs. 47.1 expected and 46.7 prior.
• Prices paid 45.2 vs. 49.9 prior.
• Employment 48.1 vs. 45.8 prior.
• New orders 47.1 vs. 48.3 prior.
• Inventories 44.3 vs. 44.8 prior.
• Production 50.3 vs. 48.5 prior.

The US Job Openings for
November missed expectations with inside data looking even worse since the
hiring rate fell below the pre-pandemic levels. It’s worth noting that this
report is from November, so it doesn’t capture the December Fed’s pivot nor the
massive easing in financial conditions:

• Job Openings 8.790M
  vs. 8.850M expected and 8.852 prior (revised from 8.733M).
• Hires 3.5% vs. 3.7% prior.
• Separations 3.4% vs. 3.6% prior.
• Quits 2.2% vs. 2.3% prior.

The Fed released the
Minutes of its December FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting:

• Participants saw
  upside risks to inflation as having diminished.
• Participants viewed
  policy rate as likely near its peak.
• Members generally
  viewed addition of ‘any’ to statement as an indication that rates likely
  near peak.
• ‘A number’ of
  participants highlighted uncertainty around how long restrictive policy
  would need to be maintained.
• Those participants
  pointed to downside risks to economy associated with an overly restrictive
  stance.
• Participants
  observed progress on inflation had been uneven across components, noted
  core services prices still rising at elevated pace.
• Several participants
  observed that circumstances might warrant keeping policy rate at current
  level longer than they currently anticipate.
• Several participants
  noted the decline in the use of overnight reverse repo facility, saw this
  reflecting portfolio shifts by money market funds.
• Several participants
  noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further,
  the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more
  abrupt downshift in conditions.
• Several participants
  suggested it would be appropriate to begin discussing technical factors
  about slowing balance sheet run-off well before such a decision was
  reached.

The Chinese Caixin
Services PMI for December beat expectations:

• Caixin Services PMI
  52.9 vs. 51.6 expected and 51.5 prior.
• Solid increase in
  service sector activity at end of 2023.
• aided by the fastest
  rise in new work since May.
• Slight increase in employment.

The US Challenger Job
Cuts for December slowed further:

• Job Cuts 34.82K vs.
  45.51K prior.
• The least in five months,
  although overall there was a 98% increase in 2023 compared to 2022.

The US ADP for December
beat expectations:

• ADP 164K vs. 115K
  expected and 101K prior (revised from 103K).

Change in annual pay:

• Job stayers 5.4% vs.
  5.8% prior.
• Job changers 8.0% vs.
  8.3% prior.

The US Jobless Claims
beat expectations across the board with Initial Claims hovering around cycle
lows and Continuing Claims stabilising around the 1850-1900K level:

• Initial Claims 202K
  vs. 216K expected and 220K prior (revised from 218K).
• Continuing Claims
  1855K vs. 1883K expected and 1886K prior (revised from 1875K).

The Eurozone CPI for
December missed slightly expectations:

• CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs. 3.0%
  expected and 2.4% prior.
• CPI M/M 0.2% vs. -0.6% prior.
• Core CPI Y/Y 3.4%
  vs. 3.5% expected and 3.6% prior.
• Core CPI M/M 0.4% vs. -0.6% prior.

The US NFP for December
beat expectations almost across the board with some
caveats like the lower participation rate and the negative revision to the
prior report:

• NFP 216K vs. 170K
  expected and 173K prior (revised from 199K).
• Two-month net
  revision -71K.
• Unemployment rate
  3.7% vs 3.8% expected and 3.7 prior.
• Participation rate 62.5% vs. 62.8% prior.
• U6 underemployment
  rate 7.1% vs. 7.0% prior.
• Average hourly
  earnings M/M 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.4% prior.
• Average hourly
  earnings Y/Y 4.1% vs. 3.9% expected and 4.0% prior.
• Average weekly hours
  34.3 vs. 34.4 expected and 34.4 prior.
• Change in private
  payrolls 164K vs. 130K expected.
• Change in
  manufacturing payrolls 6K vs. 5K expected.
• Household survey -683K
  vs. 747K prior.

The Canadia Labour Market
report for December was bad almost across the board besides the unemployment
rate and the average hourly wages:

• Employment Change
  0.1K vs. 13.5K expected and 24.9K prior.
• Unemployment rate
  5.8% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% prior.
• Full-time employment
  -23.5 K vs. 59.6K prior.
• Part-time employment
  23.6 K vs. -34.7K prior.
• Average hourly wages
  permanent employees 5.7% vs. 5.0% prior.
• Participation rate
  65.4% vs. 65.6% prior.

The US ISM Services PMI for
December was a big miss:

• ISM Services PMI
  50.6 vs. 52.6 expected and 52.6 prior.
• Employment index 43.3 vs. 50.7 prior.
• New orders 52.8 vs. 55.5 prior.
• Prices paid index
  57.4 vs. 58.3 prior.
• New export orders
  50.4 vs. 53.6 prior.
• Imports 49.3 vs. 53.7 prior.
• Backlog of orders
  49.4 vs. 49.1 prior.
• Inventories 49.6 vs. 55.4 prior.
• Supplier deliveries 49.5 vs. 49.6 prior.
• Inventory sentiment 49.6 vs. 62.2 prior.

The
highlights for next week will be:

• Monday: Switzerland CPI,
  Eurozone Retail Sales.
• Tuesday: Tokyo CPI, Australia
  Retail Sales, Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US
  NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
• Wednesday: Japan Wages data,
  Australia Monthly CPI.
• Thursday: US CPI, US Jobless
  Claims.
• Friday: China CPI, UK GDP, US
  PPI.

That’s all folks. Have a
nice weekend!