Why is it important?
In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US non-farm payrolls report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when actual data deviates from expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input into market reaction is the spread of expectations.
In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts may cluster at the upper end of the range, so even if the data comes out within the range of estimates but at the lower end of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
Distribution of expectations
Non-farm payrolls
- Estimate range from $70,000 to $225,000
- Prices range from 185k to 165k most of the time.
Unemployment rate
- 4.2% (7%)
- 4.1% (83%)
- 4.0% (10%)
Average hourly earnings on an annual basis
- 3.9% (3%)
- 3.8% (27%)
- 3.7% (52%)
- 3.6% (18%)
Average hourly income per month
- 0.4% (10%)
- 0.3% (64%)
- 0.2% (26%)
Average weekly working hours
- 34.3 (77%)
- 34.2 (20%)
- 34.1 (3%)