A potential second Trump administration is expected to double down on tough immigration policies, but what are the realistic outcomes? According to Evercore ISI, along with taxes and trade, immigration is a key driver of overall policy under Trump, especially as immigration has emerged as a top issue for voters and given Trump a significant advantage.
A Trump victory would likely prompt immediate action to curb immigration. “We expect a second Trump administration to move quickly to limit the flow of migrants through asylum and parole and begin to strip protected status from as many as 5 million people,” Evercore ISI analysts say.
However, internal removals are expected to take longer to complete.
One key difference this time around, the bank explains, is the improved legal basis. “Future Trump immigration measures will be more likely to survive legal challenge than under Trump 1.0 due to better preparation and a more accommodating judiciary,” the analysts explain. This suggests that Trump 2.0 immigration measures may have greater strength in the face of judicial scrutiny, they add.
Despite Trump’s claims of deporting 15 to 20 million people, Evercore ISI highlights the practical limitations. “There is no real mechanism to achieve Trump’s goal of deporting 15 to 20 million people,” the organization says.
Instead, Evercore says more realistic scenarios involve significant but smaller increases in removals: “$500,000 to $1 million per year in the base case and $2 to $3 million per year in the high case.”
Achieving this goal could lead to significant backlash, possibly including “large-scale use of the military to carry out immigration raids.”
Trump 2.0 is also expected to examine traditional legal pathways, including family-based immigration and temporary work visas for high-skilled workers (H-1B).
Evercore says policies targeting immigrants already in the United States could lead to increased voluntary out-migration, increasing official deportation flows.