On March 24, US President Trump addressed a group of correspondents who announced the investment of a $ 5 billion cars factory in Louisiana, with reference to the upcoming definitions of the industry.
This event preceded a declaration a few days later (March 26) of global definitions by 25 % on all car imports in the United States, which is part of Trump's economic strategy to reshape the missing manufacturing to the past decades of globalization.
If the president usually represented in dropping bread crumbs before the great disclosure of the definitions, what he said after that must create a reason to worry about the technology industry because it indicates more customs tariff ads: “You must do it a little even with that, it is very good, but we will express it. Be a big day.”
President Trump is expected to call a set of new customs tariff ads on April 2, called “Tahrir Day”, in the most important open trade policy in management in favor of commercial protectionism.
The comments also follow a statement in February, indicating that Trump may impose a “25 % or higher” tariff on all semiconductors imported in the United States. The dominant novel indicates that Trump is not taking in his speech is the best scenario in the global technology industry.
Many technology leaders assert that the customs tariff for semiconductors and countries of strategic importance in supplying chips to the United States will serve as self -harm to the United States while others see it to compensate for a global trade balance.
Definitions on Chinese chips It will not affect the distinguished products in the United States, according to Bill Rojas, Director of Strategic Intelligence Research in Globalta, who notes that China provides less than 8 % of the world supply chain.
However, most of the main chips, if not all of them, including central processing units, graphics processing units, RAM, and DDR RAM come from Taiwan, Japan or Korea. For example, TSMC or Apple iPhone chips make Apple iPhone and Nvidia GPU processors by TSMC or other Taiwanese fixed armed forces, says Rojas. In other words, most of all consumer products and the distinguished data center will be punished if Taiwan was defined. “The Taiwan tariff will be self -harm,” he says.
The dynamics that drive the semiconductor supply chain have become very fraught, complex and geopolitical. Intellectual property, as well as manufacturing, was under the scope of the protection of the Trump administration to secure global domination in the country in technology.
On March 27, the United States added more than 50 Chinese technology companies to its black export list in an attempt to make China's ability to develop advanced technology, especially artificial intelligence. At least 13 of these in the list is associated with the production of semiconductors.
According to the American Industry and Security Office, 12-11 entities were added under the destination of China and one under the destination of Taiwan-to engage in the development of advanced artificial intelligence, super computers, and east high-performance AI for the final users in China with close relations of the country's industrial military complex. Two Chinese entities were added to sell products to parties in the black list, including Huawei and its semiconductor.
The transfer of knowledge to the United States, as well as the ability to manufacture chips, was the driving forces behind the Biden chips law in the United States that encouraged foreign chips, TSMC in Taiwan, to invest in the ability to make American chips to reduce dependence on chips from Asia. Since 2020, TSMC has announced $ 65 billion of investment in three semiconductors in the US state of Arizona, which represents the largest foreign direct investment project in the history of the United States.
Mike Orme, founder of Sigma Intel, says that the TSMC investment in the United States means making the big deal and settlement has already been done. “In exchange for an agreement on the definitions imposed on the imports of chips from TSMC in Taiwan, TSMC will invest $ 100 billion by 2030 or so,” he explains.
“The decisions of the liberation day, none of which were appointed in cement, will only do little or nothing to make the United States more self -acquisition in semiconductors, rather than distorting the global supply chain in the industry and raising the price of the ultimate users of customers from the United States to the critical potatoes,” said Urmi.
There is nothing known for possible exceptions and what may be included in the tariffs regardless of chips, such as chips, specialized chemicals, basic materials, or whether exceptions may be made on ASML EUVS, which does not develop the United States itself but decisive to make 5 nm chips, for example.
According to Orme, R&D of TSMC and its most advanced manufacturer in Taiwan than Fabs in the United States. “For one thing, American chips will cost American consumers, Apple, Huawei et al
The current United States can not meet the production of domestic demand chips. The United States, which was exacerbated due to the decline of Intel, was exacerbated by the strong capabilities of the sacrifice, according to the analyst, the strategic director of strategic intelligence, Isabel Al -Dahr.
“This fact becomes particularly evident in the context of the production of artificial intelligence chips, which are dominated by TSMC. Therefore, the implementation of the definitions is likely to increase the costs of semiconductors, which ultimately affects the prices of the final electronic products of American consumers.
The argument for the imposition of definition pain in the short term to achieve long -term gains due to the abolition of the Biden American chips, which aims to re -manufacture chips without raising costs.
“The cancellation can affect the subsidies of the chips law negatively on future investments, leaving many industries that are not sure to invest in a country where policies may be canceled unexpectedly. Moreover, only dependence on the financial trust of the tariff would force semiconductor companies probably to expand their investments in the United States.”
The American Association of American conductors, which represents 99 % of the American semiconductor industry with revenues and nearly a third of non -American companies, echoed this warning in the February statement: “If they are not treated carefully, the tariff can make it more expensive by developing and producing semiconductors made in America and many decisive technologies that it enjoys.
It is hoped that the liberation day will bring clear the countries and industries that will bear a greater tariff. Meanwhile, semiconductor companies that are awaiting this clarity hates comment in any detail.
“We are closely monitoring the customs tariff to quickly determine whether there is any impact on our business and customers. NXP's focus continues to provide our customers with a reliable supply to support their business. As with all commercial posts, we will work in cooperation with each of our customers to achieve an effective solution,” Global Semiconductor Company told the ruling.
“Arm supports us and other government efforts to increase the flexibility in the supply chain. While this is clearly a priority for the new administration, we will not speculate on the policy tools that they may use to address this, including customs tariffs,” said a spokesman for Chip Company Arm.
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, Director of the European Center for Economic Policy, and the main LSE colleague and experienced negotiator in international trade, warns on focusing on customs tariffs as an end game. “It is important to distinguish between threats and goals,” says Lee-Makiyama.
“Trump may threaten the customs tariff, but the goal is to force the other party at the negotiating table,” noting that Trump may receive concessions without actually the need to implement definitions on semiconductors at all. “Every commercial negotiator in the world is discussing whether this is a deception,” says Lee-Makiyama, although the risky trick.
Trump risks the disturbances in the market because the signals are often sufficient to disrupt the economy. In addition, if the threat tactic fails, Trump must follow up to maintain the credibility of his administration. All of this highlights the fact that the customs tariff is a sharp tool for commercial negotiations at best, and in the worst case, the disaster spelling to the chain of supplying semiconductors.
“Editing Day: What will the tariffs mean semiconductors for the technology industry?” It was originally created and published by RulingThe brand owned by Globaldata.
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