Where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here?

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Now that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is an expendable political force, the Liberal Party will soon make crucial decisions about its future. Nearly 70 per cent of Canadians want Trudeau to go, while the Conservatives lead by between 22 and 29 points in opinion polls, which could push the Liberals into fourth place in the House of Commons. As the hooves of the four horses of the apocalypse sound louder, the liberal caucus enters into open revolt. Everyone seems to agree that the Prime Minister’s exit is a foregone conclusion, with only the timing and manner in doubt.

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Everyone, except Trudeau himself, who continues to give signs of denial. He has the power to call elections before the House of Representatives reconvenes on January 27. He may believe that his campaigning skills and attacks on Pierre Poilievre can convince enough undecided voters to pressure another minority government. But he is almost certainly wrong. Voters suffered from his narcissism, piety, double standards, entitlement, flexible morals, and lack of moral clarity. Remaining in power would likely lead to electoral defeat, so it would take a generation to crush the Liberals — or even lead to a merger with the NDP.

To avoid such humiliation, Trudeau could announce his intention to resign and request an adjournment from Governor General Marie Simone to give his party time to elect a new leader. No postponement request has ever been refused, although Ms. Simon could limit it to a few months, given the general circumstances.

If Trudeau instead asked for a postponement simply to give himself time to improve his personal political situation, constitutional scholars would do so I disagree On whether Simon has the power to refuse under her “reserve powers,” particularly in light of the urgent need to elect a new government to deal with the threat of a devastating 25 percent US tariff. She knows the Conservatives intend to table a motion of no confidence as early as January 30, and that the NDP and Bloc will support it. This is important since then, said one expert Put it down“The Governor-General has a central duty to ensure that there is a government in power that commands the confidence of Parliament.” There is no appeal of its decision.

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“He still haunts us,” began Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s famous autobiography. Although Justin Trudeau will soon be yesterday’s news, his legacy will haunt the Liberals’ political future, perhaps for decades.

In the near term, there will be painful memories of: relative and even absolute economic decline, out-of-control spending, intrusive regulations, high taxes, massive indebtedness, democratic scandals, massive deficits, divisive social policies, foolish ideology, and hostility. To vast energy resources, a tattered international reputation, rising crime rates, excessive immigration, and the threat to national security. Unless the Liberals can credibly change course on this series of failures, a change of leader will not be enough. So far there is no indication that they will do so.

It will be difficult for anyone who served with Trudeau to escape his track record. Mark Carney should be trying, but since September he has chaired the Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth, and before that had been advising in secret for some time – without any tangible policy change needed to deal with declining productivity or wasteful spending. To be sure, he has his own ideas, but he has not criticized Trudeau’s comprehensive fiscal approach, which is entirely consistent with the climate panic that has cost the country hundreds of billions of dollars in both direct expenditures and opportunity costs.

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Another party outsider, former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark, has the advantage of distance and may appeal to the party’s remaining few. After all, she seriously considered running for Conservative leadership in 2020 before deciding her French was “too rusty”.

After the next election, Liberals must accept that the collapse of their popularity is not a personal problem or part of a global phenomenon of voters toppling elected governments. As in the United States, pocketbook issues are a major cause of voter frustration, especially high prices, high taxes, delayed wages, and unaffordable housing. There is also a gap between liberal elites and the public on cultural issues. People are tired of identity politics, the denigration of Canada’s proud history, men participating in sports, teenage girls changing, and other fringe stuff.

To have any chance of electoral survival in the long term, the Liberals need to radically change direction from left to centre, which is where most Canadians stand and is closest to where economic prosperity lies. This means embracing fiscal responsibility, limiting government influence, eliminating excessive regulation, reducing personal and corporate taxes, and embracing the enormous potential for natural resource development. As well as strengthening the army and returning it to being a credible middle power at the international level.

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Canadians realize that delaying elections for partisan gain would undermine the national interest at a critical moment. The current government is in no position to bargain over threatened US tariffs without giving up the store: the next president will exploit its weakness to the max. Continuing to support the Liberal albatrosses also poses an existential threat to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

It remains to be seen how the machinations will unfold, but my bet is that, much to their relief, Canadians will have a new government by April or May at the latest.

Joe Oliver was Minister for Natural Resources and Finance in the Harper government.

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