why driver numbers are plummeting and what’s at stake

London’s iconic black cabs could disappear by 2040, warn long-serving taxi drivers who have seen their ranks shrink by a third in the past decade.

At the heart of the crisis are growing pressures to switch to electric vehicles, an aging workforce reluctant to invest in expensive new taxis, and citywide “anti-car” measures that drivers say are making serving passengers quickly more difficult than ever.

The scale of the decline in driver numbers is striking: from a record high of 25,538 in 2014, figures from November 2024 show there are now only 16,965 drivers left – a drop of 33.6 per cent. While demand for black cabs has remained strong, the pool of available vehicles and drivers is steadily dwindling, with many approaching retirement and fewer newcomers taking the risk.

Steve McNamara, president of the Licensed Taxi Drivers Association, believes taxi drivers are taken for granted. He claims that the proliferation of low-traffic neighbourhoods, coupled with a maze of cycle lanes and 20mph speed restrictions, have turned London into a “virtually impossible” place to get around. “They have built a road network for middle-class white men using cycle lanes, at the expense of the majority of Londoners,” he says. “It’s very stressful and a lot of people think I can’t do this anymore.”

For drivers who stayed on the road, profits were booming. The decline in the number of taxis in circulation means that black cabs now control a larger slice of the market, allowing some drivers to earn up to £100,000 a year. However, Transport for London (TfL) is considering raising fixed fares by a further 7.5 per cent in 2025, on top of recent increases totaling more than 15 per cent since 2022.

Ironically, these high prices did not reduce passenger demand. However, taxi driver Tom Hotley is concerned about how rising prices, coupled with rerouted journeys due to road restrictions, will affect customers’ perceptions. “If it takes twice as long and costs £15 instead of £10, people may choose a different option next time,” he warns.

Once upon a time, the ever-increasing number of private for-hire vehicles, including Uber, threatened to undercut lower-priced black cabs. However, the combination of rising prices and inflationary pressures has made black taxis more competitive. “We’re not necessarily more expensive than Uber,” says McNamara. For many passengers, a metered taxi with a regulated tariff is no longer different in price.

Despite the environmental positives, switching to electric taxis poses a financial hurdle for many drivers. A new electric black cab can cost up to £80,000, or £100,000 on finance. About 60 per cent of London’s black cabs are now zero-emission vehicles, but part-time drivers and those nearing retirement are reluctant to invest heavily. Diesel taxis must be taken off the road at 12 years old under TfL’s green policies, meaning older vehicles cannot run anymore.

“I’m in my 60s and don’t plan to pay £80,000,” explains one veteran taxi driver. “I don’t have a problem with electricity, but I won’t do that.” Previous grants of up to £10,000 to scrap older diesel taxis have ended, leaving drivers with less incentive to upgrade.

The “Knowledge” program – London’s famous requirement to memorize 25,000 streets – still attracts newcomers, but it is not enough to compensate for the large numbers of drivers reaching retirement. Transport for London data shows that 62 per cent of current taxi drivers are over 53, with limited interest among younger generations in replacing them.

Neil Jarratt of the London Assembly says the city’s black cabs are “at a crossroads” and urged the city’s mayor to act quickly: “Black cabs are a vital means of transport, and it is within the mayor’s power to secure their future.”

TfL’s Graham Robinson adds that a revised action plan is underway to support “hard-working black cab drivers”. He says the funding has helped many switch to greener vehicles, along with improving the city’s taxi ranks and expanding access to bus lanes. But for many taxi drivers, these measures may be too little, too late, to save an industry on the brink.


Paul Jones

Harvard graduate and former New York Times journalist. Editor of Business Matters for over 15 years, the UK’s largest business magazine. I’m also Head of Automotive at Capital Business Media and work for clients such as Red Bull Racing, Honda, Aston Martin and Infiniti.

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