Bitcoin price drops and within 48 hours while still fresh from local highs, the crypto market sentiment was immediately convinced of another major correction.
According to the time-based theory of technical analysis, the cryptocurrency market may not be due for a correction any longer. Here is a closer look at why.
Time is on the side of the bulls
Within days of a minor 10% decline, crypto Twitter announces it The bear market is back, and new bottoms are a guarantee. However, time is on the side of the bitcoin bulls, according to the Hurst Cycle theory.
American engineer J.M. Hurst invented the theory in the 1970s, and it consists of eight basic principles. The list includes commonalities, periodicity, grouping, concordance, synchronicity, proportionality, nomenclature, and disparity.
In essence, the theory seeks a recurring rhythm of time distance, measured from trough to trough. In the chart below, we can see that 50% or more of the past corrections follow a cyclical pattern. Repeating time cycles suggest that the next major bottom will not be until January 2024 at the earliest.
Short-term cyclical behavior | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Both major lows date back to the last big correction in 2017. The next major low was the bear market bottom of 2018, followed by the COVID crash in 2020. Summer 2021 gave us another low and another reached last November 2022. But was it a long term bottom?
Bitcoin’s Long Term Bottoms Connection
Not only do the shorter time cycles indicate that there won’t be any major bearish moves in the near term, the larger time cycles suggest something similar. According to the principle of harmony, larger time cycles can be divided into halves and thirds.
Long-term cyclical behavior | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
A smaller time cycle measured as the 1/3 harmonic takes Bitcoin price to the last several major bear market bottoms. Another one of these major cyclical lows with a major summation is not due until mid-2026.
Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Poised for Its Strongest Rally in Years
Hurst Cycle theory requires some subjectivity, so it cannot be known whether the above is entirely accurate, or whether the existing cyclic structure begins to change or is characterized by more variability. But if the graphics are accurate, it won’t be time for a bigger correction for several more months.
Today definitely felt like giving up in cryptocurrency. periodic time l # Bitcoin The bottom couldn’t be more flawless either. How far does he go before the week is over? pic.twitter.com/dMIuTcM44d
– Tony “The Bull” (tonythebullBTC) November 10, 2022