The Litecoin halving is still just over a month away, and historically, the cryptocurrency has peaked before this repeat event.
But this time it could be very different, as LTCUSD shows more similarities to the previous point – just before the amazing breakout performance. With a similar technical setup back, will the altcoin rise like last time? Or like the last halving, does the summit really exist?
The looming Litecoin halving paradox
Ask the average Bitcoiner, and they’ll tell you the same thing. “Wait until after half.” After several iterative cycles, the vast majority are convinced that the BTC halving alone drives up the price.
Meanwhile, in Litecoin, it is seen as a “selling the news” style event where the price peaks before the halving, and then simply stagnates. However, the LTC halving features the same supply-reducing mechanisms, but it is ignored because it has no positive effect at all.
This creates an ironic situation where half have an effect, or they don’t. Alternatively, it could be that price behavior closely related to each halving is simply correlation rather than causation.
If this is indeed the case, then the market could eventually face a scenario where Litecoin rises shortly after its halving and Bitcoin peaks before it – a situation very few would be prepared for. It is also supported by a large number of technologies
Will lightning strike twice?| LTCUSD on TradingView.com
Why LTC Technicals tells a very different story
The notion is supported by the LTCUSD Monthly Stochastic which has reached a level not seen since 2017 and is up over 8000%. After reaching overbought conditions, Stoch is back up, indicating a strong trend. The same additional technical setup is required for a stronger push to the upside.
However, there is a lot of convergence of other technical signals. For example, the LMACD is crossing upwards and the histogram has been showing increasing momentum for several months in a row.
Litecoin has also reclaimed the baseline of the Bollinger Band, which is the 20-month simple moving average. If it can hold, LTCUSD can run to the upper band. Correspondingly, further tightening of the bands may be necessary before the fluctuations resume.
If Litecoin can close above the upper Bollinger Band in the coming months, push above the zero line on the LMACD, and revisit overbought conditions a second time after this, we could have a double bolt position in LTC.
This graph originally appeared in CoinChartist (VIP) Version 10. Sign up for a free subscription.
# Litecoin You are preparing for something special, according to Stochastic
The recovery of the Bollinger Band base is a positive development LTCUSD dollars The monthly bullish momentum in the LMACD chart is increasing
A push above the zero line should send that rally higher – news is coming IMO pic.twitter.com/n7y516lGFs
– Tony “The Bull” (tonythebullBTC) July 6, 2023