So far in July, Bitcoin price has shown positive movement, breaking out of June’s downtrend and rising to new monthly highs. While this rally has been encouraging, it still leaves investors with doubts as Bitcoin price remains below $70,000. As the month comes to a rapid end, the question remains whether Bitcoin price will end this month in the green or succumb to the bears once again.
How has Bitcoin price performed historically?
Historical data is often useful to investors when it comes to volatile assets like Bitcoin, as it can provide insight into where the price is headed next. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s price has repeated the same trends, one of which is the four-year bull market cycle.
In the shorter term, looking at monthly performance can also be a useful indicator of where Bitcoin’s price might go next, especially considering how the months leading up to July also performed compared to historical data.
Use Data From Coinglass, we can see that Bitcoin’s monthly returns in the first quarter of the year remained in line with performance in 2023. The first three months of January, February, and March were all green, just like they were last year.
However, in Q2, Bitcoin took an interesting turn in terms of monthly performance. Instead of sticking to previous performance, each month did the opposite of what happened in the same month in 2023.
For example, in April 2023, Bitcoin saw a positive monthly return of 2.81%, but in April 2024, it turned negative as the price fell by 14.76%. This was the case for May and June, with an increase of 11.07% in May 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.98% in May 2023, and a decrease of 6.96% in June 2024 compared to an increase of 11.98% in June 2023.
As Q3 approaches, Bitcoin appears to be following the trend that began in Q2. With just one week left in July, Bitcoin is already up 7.27%, compared to a 4.02% decline in July 2023.
Now, if Q3 follows the same trend as Q2, it means that July 2024 could end in the green. Moreover, since August 2023 saw Bitcoin price close the month with a loss of 11.29%, this bodes well for the price, as it could indicate a price increase in August as well.
Featured image created using Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com