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Cryptocurrency analyst Egrag provided a historical report analysis on the weekly XRP price chart, indicating that the cryptocurrency is entering “uncharted territory.” Take advantage of historical data and focus on important technical indicators.
Egrag highlights the significant shifts in XRP trading behavior, emphasizing the exhaustion felt by the XRP community during this long cycle. “This cycle has been very stressful and very manipulative, especially when it comes to XRP. But don’t lose hope!” He says.
Why is XRP in uncharted territory?
Central to Egrag analysis are two main indicators that are plotted on a weekly scale: the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 55-week Simple Moving Average (MA). Both indicators are known for their response to price changes and have historically been indicators of market momentum shifts for XRP. Interactions between these moving averages, especially when they cross, are pivotal in forecasting potential up or down trends.
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Igraj identifies three types of crossovers in his analysis, each indicating different sentiment in the market. A bearish crossover, marked by a red circle on the chart, occurs when the 21-week moving average crosses below the 55-week moving average, indicating potential downside momentum. A bullish crossover, indicated by a green circle, occurs when the 21-week moving average crosses above the 55-week moving average, indicating potential upward movement. An inconclusive crossover, represented by an orange circle, indicates periods when the moving averages converge but do not cross decisively, reflecting uncertainty or potential market manipulation.
In Cycle A, XRP witnessed a bearish crossover followed by two bullish crossovers, with significant implications for its price trajectory. The period from the bearish cross to the first bullish cross lasted about 616 days, during which the market sentiment gradually shifted. In the middle of this cycle, there was another bearish crossover about 140 days after the first bullish crossover, preceding a second bullish crossover that occurred 49 days later. This second bullish crossover resulted in explosive price action. “We had a bearish crossover, followed by two bullish crossovers – one in the middle of the cycle and the second was explosive!,” Igraj says.
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Cycle B presented a different scenario, featuring one bearish cross followed by one bullish cross. The duration from bearish crossover to bullish crossover was approximately 763 days, indicating a long period of downtrend before the market turned. During this session, XRP narrowly missed a previous bullish crossover due to a significant price drop, preventing the moving averages from crossing as they would have otherwise. “Mid-cycle, XRP narrowly missed a bullish crossover due to a significant price decline,” notes Igraj.
Currently, in cycle C, XRP shows behavior that differs from previous cycles in terms of duration and complexity. From the first bearish crossover to the first bullish crossover, the cycle lasted about 441 days, which is longer than previous cycles. After that, there was a 399-day period leading to a second bearish crossover. In total, Cycle C has spanned approximately 987 days since the first bearish crossover, making it the longest cycle since the creation of XRP.
Currently, the 21-week moving average and 55-week moving average are converging but have not crossed decisively, marked by an orange circle indicating an inconclusive crossover. Igraj expresses his frustration at this development, saying: “Right now, both indicators (21 EMA and 55 MA) are in the orange circle – on the verge of a manipulated bullish crossover that we narrowly avoided. This is pure manipulation!”
Igraj’s analysis suggests that the unprecedented duration of Cycle C and its deviation from previous patterns puts XRP in “uncharted territory,” suggesting that the market may be preparing for a previously unobserved outcome. “After analyzing all these intersections, what I conclude is that Cycle C differs from Cycles A and B based on the number of intersections and their duration. We are in uncharted territory, so we are likely to see something new this time.
However, Igraj remains optimistic about the future. He envisions the potential beginning of a “utility phase” for XRP, where the focus shifts from speculative trading to practical applications for the cryptocurrency. “In my optimistic view, I hope this is the moment when the utility phase kicks in, allowing us to use our XRP instead of selling it!” He finishes.
At press time, XRP was trading at $0.53.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com