Analysis-Lessons from Iran missile attacks for defending against China’s advanced arsenal By Reuters

Written by Jerry Doyle

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Iran’s missile barrage this month on Israel, after a similar large-scale attack in April, shows the value and shortcomings of the missile defenses of the United States and its allies in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China, analysts say. He says.

Although the differences between the two scenarios limit the lessons that can be learned, the nearly 400 missiles of different types that Iran has fired at Israel this year give the United States and China some idea of ​​what works and what does not.

For Washington, the main takeaway from the October 1 attacks by Iran — the largest sample yet of ballistic missiles launched against modern defenses — could be that intercepting Beijing’s missiles will be more difficult than Iran’s, and that the ability to respond will necessary for deterrence. Colin Koh, of S. College, said: Rajaratnam International Studies in Singapore, it is a mass attack.

“Looking through the lens of deterrence alone, one can no longer pin hopes on deterrence by denial alone — that is, hoping that effective defenses can weaken the effectiveness of missile strikes,” Koh said. “Deterrence by punishment may have to become standard in the future.”

There is no immediate threat of a missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The distances, thousands of kilometers, are greater than in the Middle East. Chinese weapons are more advanced, including maneuverable warheads and precision guidance. The target areas are spread across the region, making a mass attack more difficult.

The United States has developed and deployed new weapons to the region this year to counter China, including the AIM-174B air-to-air missile and the Philippines’ ground-based Typhoon missile battery, which can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles. .

The US Indo-Pacific Command and the Chinese Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China’s missiles are longer range and less accurate

On the other hand, simply having better information about how offensive and defensive systems performed after Iran’s missiles — many of which were intercepted — may reduce the chance of conflict, said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Any military force planning long-range missile strikes will need to plan around the potential impacts of missile defenses,” Banda said. He added: “Of course, without clarity about how well a particular missile defense system is performing, this could lead to massive escalation.”

Israel’s multi-layered air and missile defenses – from the long-range Arrow systems to the Iron Dome shield intended to deal with slower, less sophisticated threats – are tailored to the threats it faces: guided ballistic missiles from powers like Iran mixed with unguided missiles launched only from Israel’s borders.

The picture is very different in the Indo-Pacific region for the United States and its allies, which use nuclear weapons Lockheed Martin (NYSE:) and Raytheon (NYSE:) Patriot, THAAD, and Aegis maritime missile defense systems.

The Chinese DF-26, the largest conventional medium-range ballistic missile, has an estimated accuracy of 150 meters (500 feet), according to the Missile Defense Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The DF-21 missile has a shorter range, although some variants have an accuracy of up to 50 metres.

Both of them can hit most American and allied targets in the region. The DF-26 missile can reach Guam, the site of major US military installations. The Pentagon estimated that China may possess several hundred missiles.

In contrast, Iranian missiles such as the Fattah-1 are theoretically more accurate — to within tens of meters — but much shorter in range. The number of these newer missiles has not been announced, but US Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told Congress last year that Iran possesses more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said China’s capabilities outpace Iran’s in other ways. Missile attacks are likely to be coordinated with anti-satellite attacks and cyber warfare, both of which are designed to complicate defense.

“Western (integrated air and missile defense) systems in the Indo-Pacific region will have much more difficulty repelling a major Chinese missile attack, involving hundreds or even thousands of missiles, than the Iranians can do,” Davis said.