Bitcoin is trading at $59,545, up a slight 0.5% over the past 24 hours. While this increase is small, it is noteworthy as it comes on the back of Bitcoin’s price falling to $57,812 earlier in the day.
Despite this modest recovery, a recent analysis by CryptoQuant author on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform showed that open Bitcoin is probably approaching a dangerous situation now.
Bears at the Door? Bitcoin Weakness Analysis
According to CryptoQuant analyst Grizzly, Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric — a tool used to measure a market’s profit or loss by comparing unrealized profit and loss — is hovering near a pivotal threshold — the 0.4 level.
Grizzly explained that this level historically acts as a vital turning point, either as support that boosts market sentiment or as resistance that signals a decline.
Are bears controlling the market?
“NUPL is currently near a critical level. Historically, the 0.4 level has served as an important support and resistance point.” – By @Grizzly PT Clover
Read more https://t.co/Q0Nuwu6Xz8 pic.twitter.com/sePvAvWg44
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 15, 2024
Current data suggests that Bitcoin is hovering near this level, and a drop below it could hand over the reins to the bears, potentially dragging the market into a bearish phase.
According to Grizzly, the fallout from such a move could send Bitcoin’s price down to $40,000, a significant drop from its current market price. The analyst noted in particular:
Data suggests that a break below this level (0.4) often signals the beginning of a major downtrend. If the indicator continues its downward movement, it is reasonable to expect bears to take full control of the market. In such a scenario, the price could drop to around $40,000.
At the same time, despite these ominous signs, it is worth taking the data that has been revealed with a balanced perspective. Grizzly pointed out that the current decline in Bitcoin value Although this is a concern, the price has not yet risen to a level that definitively indicates the end of its upward trajectory.
Historical data supports cautious optimism, as previous instances have shown that Bitcoin can bounce back from similar situations, defying bearish expectations and maintaining its upward trend.
Bitcoin bullish outlook
On the other hand, historical data may also point to a potential Bitcoin rally. Earlier today, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst known as Titan of Crypto on X revealed an interesting recurring trend in Bitcoin.
According to Titan of Crypto, “Historically, the fourth month after the halving has always been bullish for Bitcoin, closing above the halving price.” The analyst Added“If this pattern repeats, September could be a bullish month above $66,000.”
Featured image created using DALL-E, chart from TradingView
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