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Arcadium lithium (New York Stock Exchange: Altm) closed -9.6% In Tuesday trading, one of several alternative energy stocks hit a 52-week low, as a wave of bearish sentiment swept the energy sector into broad losses.
Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy (CEG)) included two of the day’s top three losers on the S&P 500, -11.3% and -9.6% respectively.
Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI) stock also fell to a 52-week low. -19.5%Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) -4.9%Fast Shipping (BLNK) -8%Canadian Solar Energy (CSIQ) -3%Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL) -4.9%LICY Holdings -7.2%Power plug (PLUG) -6.9%Tetra Technology Corporation (TTI) -5.6%Work Horse (WKHS) -9.3%.
Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) received a neutral rating and a $3 price target from UBS, saying lower lithium prices will likely delay expansions until later in the decade, according to analyst Joshua Spector.
The bank’s updated view on lithium suggests that China prices could remain near $10 per kilogram over the next two years, as lower-cost Chinese and African supplies continue to be added, and low-cost Western supplies continue to rise.
Spector says his 2025-26 EBITDA estimates for Arcadium (ALTM) are 20%-26% below consensus, “which is negative in the near term, but as our forecasts approach spot pricing, the market may already be there.”
UBS has a more positive view on Arcadium (ALTM) over the long term, but doesn’t see the market giving credit to potential capacity expansions or higher lithium prices until the current oversupply period is worked out – probably not before 2026 at the earliest.
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