As Bitcoin finds itself once again in price discovery mode, market watchers and enthusiasts are curious: Has retail FOMO kicked in yet, or is the retail rally seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon? Using data from active addresses, historical cycles and various market indicators, we will examine the current state of the Bitcoin market and what it may indicate in the near future.
Growing interest
One of the most direct signs of interest in retail is Number of new Bitcoin addresses creature. Historically, sharp increases in new addresses have often marked the beginning of a bull run as new retail investors flock to the market. However, in recent months, the growth in new titles has not been as steep as one might expect. Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day, an indication of significant interest in the retail sector. In comparison, we are now trading at a much lower level, although we have recently seen a modest uptick in new titles.
Google Trends also reflects this diluted interest. Although searches for “bitcoin” have increased in the past month, they are still well below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. Retail investors appear to be showing renewed curiosity but not yet the intense excitement typical of FOMO-driven markets.
Display shift
We are seeing a slight shift in Bitcoin from long-term holders to new short-term holders. This shift in supply could signal the possible beginning of a new phase in the market, as experienced players begin to make profits and sell to new market participants. However, the total number of coins transferred is still relatively low, indicating that long-term holders have not yet dumped their Bitcoin in significant quantities.
Historically, during the last bull run in 2020-2021, we saw significant outflows from long-term holders to new investors, which subsequently drove prices higher. Right now, the shift is only slight, and long-term holders appear largely unfazed by the current price levels, choosing to hold on to their Bitcoin despite the market gains. This reluctance to sell suggests that stockholders are confident about the potential for further upside.
A rise driven by the spot price
A key aspect of Bitcoin’s recent rally is its spot price-driven nature, unlike previous bull runs that were heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives There were only slight increases, which contrasts sharply with previous peaks. For example, open interest was large before the FTX crash in 2022. The spot market, without excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors are at risk of forced liquidation.
Large stockholders are accumulating
Interestingly, although retail addresses did not increase significantly, the “whale” Addresses containing at least 100 BTC I’ve been rising. Over the past few weeks, wallets with large Bitcoin holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, worth billions of dollars. This increase indicates confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin reaches all-time highs.
In past bull cycles, we have seen whales exit or reduce positions near market tops, behavior we did not see this time. This cumulative trend by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it indicates confidence in the market’s long-term potential.
conclusion
While Bitcoin’s rise to all-time highs has brought renewed interest, we have yet to see clear signs of widespread retail FOMO. Weak interest in the retail sector suggests we may be only in the first phase of this rally. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage remains modest, all signs of a healthy, sustainable rally.
As we continue this bull cycle, market structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven boom is still ahead. If this retail interest materializes, it could push Bitcoin to new heights.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch a recent YouTube video here: Has Bitcoin retail FOMO started?
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