Asian Economic Calendar: Key Events and Consensus Expectations for 31 January 2024

It’s a packed agenda.

It kicks off with the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions report from the most recent meeting, back on the 22nd and 23rd of January:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.

Key points about the Summary:

• The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
• The summary also outlines the Policy Board members’ views on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
• The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
• The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.

In a few week’s time we’ll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.

• The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
• The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ’s views on monetary policy.
• The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
• The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.

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Later we’ll get Q4 inflation data from Australia. This will be key information for the Reserve Bank of Australia heading into the February 5 and 6 meeting. If inflation readings are higher than forecast there could well be pressure on the RBA to hike rates again, though I think the chance of this low. It’s a nearly unanimous consensus that the Bank remains on hold at this meeting.

Preview of the inflation data here:

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Also due today are official PMIs for China in January from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Its hard going for China’s economy and markets at present. China’s manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight out of the preceding nine months. The consensus expectation for today’s data is that contraction will continue, but at a slight improvement.