AUD/USD and NZD/USD Forecast:
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Technical analysis of the Australian dollar
On Tuesday, I discussed how AUD/USD has been trading largely sideways since early March, moving predictably within the confines of a sideways channel while flawlessly respecting the upper and lower borders of the technical pattern, two areas that can be considered resistance and support. respectively.
The (Aussie) pair challenged the upper side of the range (0.6800) that it had been stuck in for more than 2 months earlier this week, but was soon forcibly rejected from that area after a short and fake breakout, in a sign that the sellers are determined to reconfirm Take control when the markets stretch.
With the downward pressure accelerating after the 200-day SMA was abandoned, AUD/USD could head lower in the coming days, but for more confidence in the downtrend scenario, a stronger bearish signal is required.
Confirmation that the bears have become the dominant force can come from a clear and clean break of the support at 0.6680. A sustained drop below that floor could set the stage for a deeper decline, with the 2023 lows being the next potential area of interest for the bulls.
Conversely, if the technical support holds at 0.6680, the buyers will be in a better position to resume the rebound, and in this case, we cannot rule out a move towards 0.6730 – the first resistance to watch. Above that ceiling, the 0.6800 could become the next barrier on the journey north.
Technical chart of the Australian dollar / US dollar
AUD/USD chart set up using TradingView
|
change in |
Longs |
Shorts |
Hey |
| Daily | 36% | -34% | 4% |
| weekly | 50% | -36% | 8% |
Technical analysis of the New Zealand dollar / US dollar
NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar – US Dollar) has been forming a bullish double bottom pattern in recent months. The technical formation was about to complete and confirm, but prices failed to remove the neckline resistance at 0.6385 earlier this week, paving the way for a sharp decline in the next trading session.
While the double bottom system has not been completely invalidated yet, the chances of a successful bullish outcome will diminish as long as the sellers maintain control and push prices further lower. If this scenario plays out, the initial support is seen at 0.6275, followed by 0.6215, the 50-day SMA.
On the flip side, if the bulls can make a sudden turnaround and prices resume the upward journey, the resistance is at 0.6380. A successful and sustained move above this barrier will fuel the positive sentiment, and create the right conditions for a rise towards 0.6550 and 0.6625 after that.
NZD/USD technical chart
