The data is here:
TL;DR is of higher than expected inflation data from Australia. Right across all three measures:
- headline
- trimmed mean (a core inflation measure)
- weighted median (another core inflation measure)
The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on November 7. The Q3 CPI data was the last critical piece of info before heading into this meeting and its not encouraging. You’ll recall the words from the minutes of the October meeting:
- “the Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected”
Combine this with what I have assessed as a more hawkish Governor (Bullock > Lowe).
Stir in the unemployment rate basically at a five-decade low and a still-solid jobs market.
November is very much a ‘live meeting. I would be surprised if we don;lt get a rate hike. The RBA will be reluctant to hike in December going into Christmas, get it done in November will be the thinking.
