FOMC rate increases seem to be filtering through the jobs markets. Barclays says they have evaluated:
- Surrogate data from US employee profiles sends cautious warning signs that the US labor market is not as strong as it was last year.
- The total number of employees from our surrogate data appears to have peaked on January 23rd, and has been slowly declining since then
- In fact, net inflows for various job categories became negative for a few and grew less strongly in others.
Barclays says there is “reluctance” by companies to hire or fire workers, and furthermore that workers are unwilling to leave their current jobs.
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The cooling of job markets has implications for the Fed going forward, blessing the push for “higher for longer.”
