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With the stability of Bitcoin (BTC) higher than the decisive support level of $ 80,000 after a significant decrease of more than 25 % of its peak in January, Market Doctor Profit analysts a convincing report raising a pivotal question: Does the market see the emergence of a Bear marketOr is the bullish feelings still sound?
M2 Money Supply and Bitcoin
Profit Confirm The decisive role of liquidity in the current market scene. While many celebrate the increase in the M2 money offer – a major economic indicator – a vital need to understand the timing of its effects is needed.
Historically, the M2 showed a strong relationship with bitcoin price movements. Unlike stock markets, which usually interact with M2 expansion after delayed about six months, Bitcoin tends to respond more quickly, but not immediately.
According to the analyst, the “wrong concept” that printing money leads to immediate rise in the market, where there are multiple factors in playing, including total economic conditions.
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Federal Open Market Decisions (FOMC) regarding Useful interest rates It is especially influential. Although official data indicates low inflation, the basic facts, such as OPEC's influence on oil prices, which complicates expectations.
In the context of the M2 height, Doctor Profit expects that Bitcoin's bullish trend can resume in May or June, but expects a period of side movement and potentially declining pressure in the short term leading to that point. It warns that many ascends at the present time may turn into a declining position with the development of the market.
In the report, Doctor Profit highlights the importance of the weekly EMA50 – a decisive average that refers to the name “The Golden Calligraphy” – which Bitcoin has respected recently Price. After this line bounced at $ 76,000, the cryptocurrency reached 87.4 thousand dollars expected, which led to many short positions.
Long -term bullish outlook with short -term caution
Looking at the future, the Doctor Profit strategy to target a possible decrease to $ 70,000 to $ 74,000. This region is crucial. If Bitcoin is only mixing it but then closes strongly over the golden line, it plans to take long sites.
The doctor's profit maintains up Long -term expectationsWith the expectation that the bull runs in mid -2014, with the price targets ranging from 120,000 dollars to 140,000 dollars. It is still cautious, holding large cash reserves and expanding short positions in anticipation of market fluctuations.
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Doctor Profit determines a huge scenario that merchants must take into account: a control that can be controlled to between 70,000 dollars to $ 74,000 and the most severe “black swan” event that can pay prices to $ 50,000. While he is confident of the apostasy in the highest goal, it is advised to prepare for both scenarios.
At the time of writing this report, BTC hovers about $ 84,000, and records losses of 3.5 % and 12 % in the fourteen and thirty timetables, respectively.
Distinctive image from Dall-E, Chart from TradingView.com
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