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Recently note During his engagement with clients, Matt Hogan, IT Director at Bitwise, emphasized several factors that could cause Bitcoin (BTC) to “melt” to $80,000 in Q4 2024.
Factors driving Bitcoin to $80,000
Hogan highlighted three key conditions that could push Bitcoin to all-time highs (ATH) in 2024. First, he pointed to the upcoming US presidential election in November, which could influence the future trajectory of Bitcoin prices.
According to Hogan, anything other than a Democratic sweep would benefit the top cryptocurrency by market cap.
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In the memo, Hogan explained that while many view the election as a binary choice — with Republican nominee Donald Trump favoring the cryptocurrency industry and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris seen as harmful — the reality on the Democratic side is more nuanced. He said:
The Democratic Party has mixed views on cryptocurrencies, from the “anti-crypto army” of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to the deep support of Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.). The problem in the last four years is that Warren’s wing has dominated policy and agency appointments, creating a hostile environment for the sector.
Hogan expressed confidence in Republicans, noting that their victory would “undoubtedly” be positive for cryptocurrencies. However, he also pointed to the recent comment of Democrat Maxine Waters, who said that “cryptocurrencies are inevitable,” suggesting that Democrats may become more open to digital assets.
Second, Hogan drew attention to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), sending cryptocurrencies soaring. Moreover, the decision of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to inject economic stimulus into the Chinese economy has given more fuel to digital assets for payment.
Hogan noted that the market expects another 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed before the end of the year, along with additional Chinese fiscal stimulus. The cryptocurrency market could see a strong rally in Q4 2024 if both happen.
Finally, Hogan mentioned that a period with no major surprises would support Bitcoin’s potential rise to $80,000. He concluded that negative surprises, such as a major cryptocurrency exchange hack, new lawsuits, or the launch of previously locked coins, could derail this momentum.
The main component of the theft amounted to $100,000 in BTC
Hogan also stated that growing pro-crypto sentiment will be essential for BTC to reach the ambitious $100,000 goal in the coming months.
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He pointed to the famous “DeFi Summer” of 2020 as an example, and envisions a similar market-wide shift toward cryptocurrencies, driven by the growing use of stablecoins, high-throughput blockchains, and innovation in negative return solutions.
In related news, Zach Bradford, CEO of cryptocurrency mining company CleanSpark, recently said opinion That Bitcoin could reach $200,000 in the next 18 months under the right conditions.
However, recent geopolitics escalation In the Middle East it could negatively impact risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies in the short term. Bitcoin is trading at $61,999 at press time, down 1.4% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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