Points of analysis and speaking of Brent and West Texas crude oil
- More positivity about the US debt ceiling could support Crude Oil.
- More Fed guidance to dictate rates today.
- More upside for Brent and WTI? Technical chart patterns favor an upward breakout.
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Brent/West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil
Crude oil prices (WTI and Brent) rebounded on the back of yesterday’s improved risk sentiment following the relatively positive negotiations on the US debt ceiling. Despite the strength of the US dollar and the massive addition of weekly crude oil inventories by the EIA report, optimism about the debt ceiling dominated other variables. From a supply chain perspective, the fires in the Alberta (Canada) region have extended the damage wrought by a downward revision of supplies and support for crude oil prices.
Looking ahead to today’s economic calendar, US data started the trading day in full swing with employment data (see below) significantly beating estimates on all metrics thus boosting the tight labor market in the US. The initial impact was a sharp rise in the Dollar Index (DXY) which led to selling in the Crude Oil markets. The rest of the day will be dominated by Fed talk providing some short term volatility for oil.
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US Economic Calendar (GMT +02:00)
source: DailyFX Economic Calendar
Technical Analysis
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Brent crude oil price chart (daily)
Chart created by Warren VenkitasI.G
The daily Brent crude price movement is trading within an ascending triangle formation (black) with two failed attempts by the bulls to breach the triangle resistance in conjunction with 77.23 March swing low.
Key resistance levels:
- 80.00
- 50 day moving average (yellow)
- 77.23 / resistance triangle
Key support levels:
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart (Daily)
Chart created by Warren VenkitasI.G
WTI Crude Oil is moving in a consolidation fashion due to external global factors but it looks like a short-term bullish flag that could complement the bullish pattern bias shown in Brent. Both Crude Oil charts are poised for a breakout but caution is detected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings hovering near the 50 midpoint.
Key resistance levels:
- Moving average 75.00 / 50 days (yellow)
- 72.50 / pennant resistance
Key support levels:
IG customer’s sense: mixed
IGCS shows that retailers are long net On crude oil, with 76% of traders who are currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX, we usually take a view contrarian to crowd sentiment, however, due to the recent changes in long and short positions, we come to a cautious short-term disposition.
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