Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Picks Up Ahead of Tariffs

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(Bloomberg) – US inflation has picked up widely at the beginning of the year, reducing the chances of federal reserves to reduce interest rates soon.

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The consumer price index increased the largest number of August 2023, led by a group of family expenses such as grocery and gas stores, as well as housing costs. The numbers will keep the author in the foreseeable future, as officials are waiting for more clarity on President Donald Trump's policies, especially definitions.

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After the CPI report, Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing a mutual tariff on many trading partners, which raised the possibility of a broader campaign against a global system that he says it is against the United States.

Below are some of the plans that appeared on Bloomberg this week about the latest developments in the global economy, markets and political geography:

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Inflation is upper in January, because many companies choose the beginning of the year to raise prices and fees. This pattern was exacerbated in the post -trusteeship era, and many predictors suggested that the jump in the growth of prices last month will not be repeated to move forward.

Retail sales declined in January more than two years, indicating a sudden withdrawal by consumers after spending spending in the closing months of 2024. The data included a period characterized by the destroyed forest fires in Los Angeles-the second largest urban area in the capital United-severe winter weather in other parts of the country, which can have a brick and mortar shopping activity.

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Economists warn that the next stage of the trade war, Donald Trump, will open new fronts throughout Asia, as India and Thailand have been exposed among the countries most exposed to the risks of the US President's pledge to impose a mutual tariff for partners.

Raw shipments are not discharged from the projects of Russian Sakhlin Island after the tankers they carry by the United States were approved. About 6.3 million barrels of Pacific Ocean crude are built on ships that were fixed for at least a week.

Zambia raised prices to the highest level in more than eight years, while the Central Bank of Uruguay rose. The Philippines, Peru, Serbia and Romania left borrowing costs unchanged. The Bank of Russia kept the high rates, while lowering Namibia.

Europe

French unemployment decreased unexpectedly at the end of 2024, indicating signs of economic flexibility in the country of wrestling with political instability and high debt. The simple improvement in the labor market provides some comfort for the minority government of Prime Minister Francois Bayro, as it struggles to adhere to power and curb a budget deficit.

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Norway's economy surprised last quarter with the greatest amount of shrinkage since the epidemic, which strengthened the issue of the country's central bank to start its long -awaited campaign.

When the weather in Germany is cloudy and calm, air mills and solar plants do not send any strength to the network. Instead, they send shock waves across the market. One of the days of “Dunkeflaute” in mid-December witnessed that immediate energy prices climb to more than 900 euros (939 dollars) per megawatts per hour-nine times above the average.

Asia

China witnessed record flows of foreign direct investment last year, a departure that threatens to continue after the resumption of a trade war with the United States. The net foreign direct investment decreased by $ 168 billion in 2024, according to the state administration for the foreign exchange, the largest capital trip in the data that dates back to 1990.

The excess of the current account in Japan reached a record in 2024 with twice the yen, which exaggerates the value of investment revenues abroad. The high basic income of 40.2 trillion yen (264 billion dollars), which includes the benefits and distributions gained from external investments, the deficit in the trade and services budget.

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He fill in a more crowded in China by handling a record amount of goods in January, where companies rushed to obtain their products on ships before the American tariff and a long local holiday began. Shanghai Port treated 5 million containers. Last year, Chinese companies shipped about $ 525 billion of goods directly to the United States, the third highest balance.

Emerging markets

Brazil's enlargement decreased at the beginning of the year, as power assets provided once for consumers temporarily to reduce the large prices of price.

Inflation in Argentina has reached its lowest level since President Javier Millie took office and the annual consumer prices decreased to less than 100 % for the first time in two years, when he continued to tame expectations in the economy exposed to the crisis.

The shares of the emerging market went to the fifth week of gains, as merchants are betting on the positive results of negotiations on American definitions and the way of a way out of the Russia war in Ukraine. Risk appetite increases on the expectation that the impact will eventually be the proposed commercial tariffs of US President Donald Trump, at a time when international talks and other delays ended.

– With the help of William Horubin, Julian Lee, James Mayger, Yoshiaki during the day, Andrew Rosati, Zoe Shenis, Petra Surg, Manuelia Tobias, Out Amalmas and Josh Xiao.

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