Reuters published a piece from Citi’s report on politics and oil.
Briefly:
Trump presidency may cause oil prices to fall
- A combination of factors including tariffs, oil-friendly policies, and OPEC+ pushing more oil into the market
The main upside risk to oil markets under a Trump presidency is pressure on Iran, although this may have limited impact.
- Under the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, the market could see an impact of 500,000 to 900,000 barrels per day on Iranian oil exports.
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More urgently, Citi lists known risks:
- Hurricane season is not over yet
- Tensions in the Middle East remain high… and pressure is mounting for a ceasefire, which could be reached this summer.
