(Reuters) – The copper market is pricing in odds of about 50% that there will be a 10% U.S. tariff on the metal by the end of the first quarter of this year, Goldman Sachs said on Monday.
The estimate is similar to their personal probability of 50% for an effective 10% tariff on copper by the end of the year, analysts at the US investment bank said in a note to clients.
Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3 percent to $9,167 per metric ton by 0706 GMT, after reaching the highest level in a month last week. (methyl/L)
President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House later in the day to deliver an inaugural address that traders will analyze for the policies that will be enacted on the first day. Trump spoke of tariffs of up to 10% on global imports, in addition to 60% on Chinese goods and additional import duties of 25% on Canadian and Mexican products.
Goldman also noted that the oil market is calculating a roughly 40% probability of a 25% US tariff on Canadian goods including oil, versus the bank’s 15% personal probability of an effective 25% tariff by the end of the year.
Brent crude futures were trading around $80.69 per barrel, while the most active US West Texas Intermediate crude contract for April settled at $77.36. (or)
The investment bank has allocated a 10% opportunity to implement an effective 10% tariff on gold during the next 12 months. She said bullion’s status as a financial asset makes it likely that it will be exempt from large-scale customs duties.
Spot gold prices rose 0.3 percent to $2,708.77 an ounce, while US gold futures were little changed at $2,749.70. (Ghoul/)
The amount of gold inventories in Comex-approved warehouses has jumped by a third in the past six weeks as market players sought to deliver goods to hedge against the possibility of tariffs.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Ishan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
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