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Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told an investor Note Today, the cryptocurrency industry has secured its place in the financial world, regardless of the outcome of today’s US presidential election between President Donald Trump and Senator Kamala Harris. In his note titled “Cryptocurrency Has Already Won,” Hogan said: “There is nothing left to say about Tuesday’s election.”
He offered a brief assessment to investors: “In the short term, a Trump win is better than a Harris win. In the long term, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will thrive no matter who wins. Altcoins have more regulatory risk in a Harris regime than a Trump regime.” Hogan warned that the only unfavorable scenario for cryptocurrencies would be a Democratic sweep. “This will embolden the fringe element of the Democratic Party that is openly anti-crypto,” he wrote. “But even in this scenario, I would buy the dip.”
Reflecting on the industry’s resilience over the past four years, Hogan asserted, “If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the past four years, it’s this: Washington can’t stop cryptocurrencies. It can change the course. It can speed things up or slow things down. It can bring… More confusion or new clarity but it cannot be stopped.”
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According to the IT Director at Bitwise, the presidential election serves as a milestone for assessing the growth of the cryptocurrency sector since November 2020. Despite the combative regulatory environment – including “Operation Choke Point 2.0”, and several lawsuits filed by the SEC, And a bunch of contradictory or ambiguous statements – progress is noticeable. “We in crypto focus so much on moment-to-moment price action that we often lose sight of long-term trends,” Hogan noted. “The presidential election provides a good opportunity to take a step back and see how much progress we have made.”
“Cryptocurrencies have already won”
He provided convincing statistics comparing November 2020 to November 2024. The price of Bitcoin rose from $13,677 to $69,492, an increase of 408%. Ethereum price rose from $388 to $2,492, representing a 552% increase. Solana saw a rapid rise from $1.49 to $165.12, an increase of 10,982%.
In terms of trading volume, open interest for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in October rose from $0.57 billion to $10.58 billion, an increase of 1,756%. The seven-day moving average of daily cryptocurrency exchange volume expanded from $9.68 billion to $39.32 billion, an increase of 306%. Decentralized exchange volume increased in October from $12.6 billion to $156.5 billion, reflecting an increase of 11,142%.
Assets under management also witnessed significant growth. Bitcoin ETF assets under management, which did not exist in November 2020, reached $71.46 billion by November 2024. Stablecoin assets under management increased significantly from $3.87 billion to $177.83 billion, an increase of 4,495%. The total value of decentralized finance platforms increased from $9.57 billion to $139.3 billion, a growth of 1,356%.
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Network activity showed significant increases as well. Monthly transactions on the Bitcoin network rose from 9.28 million to 20.48 million, an increase of 121%. Monthly transactions taking into account Ethereum and Layer 2 solutions saw a huge rise from 33.3 million to 385.8 million, an increase of 1,059%.
Mainstream adoption indicators have also highlighted the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance and politics. The number of top 20 asset managers with token funds rose from none in 2020 to three in 2024. BlackRock’s adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which was non-existent in 2020, is one of the biggest stories of 2024.
Because of all this, Hogan expressed his strong confidence in the continuation of these positive trends. “The question you should ask yourself when you look at the above statistics is whether or not it will continue. “From my seat, the answer is a resounding yes,” he stressed.
He outlined several key predictions: spot cash flows for crypto ETFs will continue; Stablecoins will continue to grow rapidly; Institutions will continue to “exit zero” and add allocations to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies; Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real assets; Blockchains will continue to become faster and cheaper; Real world applications like Polymarket will continue to penetrate and gain mainstream adoption.
While acknowledging the importance of the election, Hogan downplayed its long-term impact on the trajectory of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Make no mistake: What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, especially in the short term. But as I see it, in the long run, Tuesday will prove to be between speed bumps and wind gusts. “Neither of them will stop this train,” he concluded.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,932.
Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
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